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The NBA Rundown – FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Picks – November 17, 2021 (11/17/21)

The NBA Rundown – FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Picks – November 17, 2021 (11/17/21)

Please note that players on DraftKings and FanDuel have multi-position eligibility and may not always match their position between each other. In this article, we will be breaking down some of our favorite plays on the slate at their positions. Remember to always keep your eye on the news as the day progresses, as NBA news changes the slate frequently.

 

Point Guard

Jalen Brunson ($5,700 DK, $6,500 FD)

Team Total Usage Rate Fantasy Points Per Minute Opponent Defensive Net Rating Rank Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game to Position 
104.25 21.2% 0.98 6th 45.31

Brunson is likely going to be one of the most popular players on this slate with Luka Doncic out due to an ankle injury and I am okay with eating the chalk on Brunson. I am okay with eating the Brunson chalk for a couple of reasons. The first reason is that Brunson was paying off this salary even with Doncic in the lineup. Brunson produced at least 27 fantasy points in eight of his last 11 games and averaged 29.42 fantasy points per game during that stretch. The second reason is the boost that Brunson is going to get with Doncic out of the lineup. Since the start of last season, Brunson has seen an increase of usage of 3.2% when not sharing the court with Doncic and is averaging 1.01 fantasy points per minute in those situations. If we look at just this season the usage increases 6.5% with the fantasy points per minute checking in at 1.18.

Shooting Guard

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,700 DK, $7,900 FD)

Team Total Usage Rate Fantasy Points Per Minute Opponent Defensive Net Rating Rank Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game to Position 
107.00 27.7% 1.02 22nd 40.93

Shai has had three bad games in a row but that doesn’t bother me tonight for a couple of reasons. The first is with the bad stretch of games and the elevated salary on Shai we are likely to see very low ownership on him tonight. The second reason is the match-up against the Rockets screams a bounce-back game for Shai. The Rockets rank in the bottom ten in both defensive net rating and points allowed per game. They have also struggled against guards this season allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to point guards and tenth-most fantasy points per game to shooting guards. Shai’s advanced metrics are all still there for him as well as he still has an elite usage rate of 27.7% and is averaging over a fantasy point per minute at 1.02.

Talen Horton-Tucker ($4,800 DK, $5,200 FD)

Team Total Usage Rate Fantasy Points Per Minute Opponent Defensive Net Rating Rank Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game to Position 
103.25 27.8% 1.06 20th 39.94

This feels like a trap game for Horton-Tucker but even with that gut feeling telling me to stay away from Horton-Tucker I just cannot do it. Horton-Tucker has played that well in his first two games of the season in place of LeBron James. In those two games, Horton-Tucker has gotten the start and played at least 27 minutes. Horton-Tucker is averaging 22.5 points on a 27.8% usage rate, five rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 1.5 steals+blocks. Horton-Tucker has at least 27.3 fantasy points in both of those games. Horton-Tucker has not only played well to start the season but the Bucks defense has not exactly been great though I imagine it improves now that they are starting to get all of their players back. This season the Bucks rank 20th in defensive net rating and 22nd in points allowed per game.

Small Forward

Jayson Tatum ($10,200 DK, $9,300 FD)

Team Total Usage Rate Fantasy Points Per Minute Opponent Defensive Net Rating Rank Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game to Position 
105.00 30.6% 1.11 27th 39.07

I know I write Tatum up every single time I do this article but I cannot help myself with Jaylen Brown still out. Tatum’s numbers with Brown out are just too good. This season with Brown not on the court, Tatum has a usage rate of 33.7% and is averaging 1.13 fantasy points per minute. In the six games that Brown has missed this season, Tatum had the one super bad game against the Cavs but produced at least 44 fantasy points in each of the other five games averaging 48.3 fantasy points during those games. The Hawks are also not a team that can slow Tatum down. The Hawks have the fourth-worst team defensive net rating this season and have allowed the seventh-most points per game. Tatum also dominated the Hawks in two of the three games they played last season with at least 49 fantasy points in those two games.

Saddiq Bey ($6,300 DK, $6,100 FD)

Team Total Usage Rate Fantasy Points Per Minute Opponent Defensive Net Rating Rank Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game to Position 
102.75 21.2% 0.91 18th 42.23

I am going to roster Bey until he gives me a reason not to as he is playing great basketball right now. Bey has produced at least 34 fantasy points in three of his past games for the Pistons with at least 39 fantasy points in back-to-back games. Bey is not just playing well right now but I also really like this match-up against the Pacers. The Pacers have been a middle of the pack at best defense this season and have struggled some against small forwards. This season the Pacers have allowed the 11th most fantasy points per game to the position.

Power Forward

Chimezie Metu ($3,800 DK, $4,100 FD)

Team Total Usage Rate Fantasy Points Per Minute Opponent Defensive Net Rating Rank Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game to Position 
110.75 21.0% 0.99 13th 48.34

It looks like the Kings are turning to Metu as their starting power forward as he has started each of the past two games for them and is coming off a game in which he played 32 minutes. Metu has not only started for the Kings and saw an increase in his minutes but he has also produced when on the court. In those two starts, Metu is averaging 15 points, 7.5 rebounds, a steal, and a block. Metu has at least 22 fantasy points in each of those games and has at least 17 fantasy points in each of his last four games which would easily pay off his salary. Tonight I don’t see why we wouldn’t continue to see that level of production from Metu as the Timberwolves struggle against big men and are the worst rebounding team in the NBA.

Kristaps Porzingis ($7,400 DK, $8,800 FD)

Team Total Usage Rate Fantasy Points Per Minute Opponent Defensive Net Rating Rank Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game to Position 
104.25 29.3% 1.25 6th 41.30

Porzingis is another Mavs player that I love tonight with Luka Doncic out. This season with Doncic off the court, Porzingis has a 30.7% usage rate and is averaging 1.45 fantasy points per minute. Last season in the two games that Doncic missed and Porzingis did not leave early due to injury we also saw some huge numbers from Porzingis. In those games, Porzingis averaged 25 points, 15.5 rebounds, and 45.85 fantasy points.

Center

Dewayne Dedmon ($4,000 DK, $3,700 FD)

Team Total Usage Rate Fantasy Points Per Minute Opponent Defensive Net Rating Rank Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game to Position 
114.25 15.2% 0.99 30th 56.84

For Dedmon to really be in play tonight we need two things to happen. First, we need Dedmon to play which is not a lock as he is listed questionable for tonight’s game. The second thing we need is Bam Adebayo to be ruled out for a second straight game. If both of those things happen Dedmon is going to be one of my top value plays on this slate as he was excellent in a spot start for Adebayo in the Heats’ last game. In that game against the Thunder, Dedmon played 29 minutes while producing eight points, seven rebounds, a steal, and three blocks on his way to 27.4 fantasy points. Dedmon has now started two games for the Heat this season and is averaging 24.85 fantasy points in those games. Dedmon would not only get the huge boost if Adebayo were to be ruled out but the match-up against the Pelicans is also not too shabby. The Pelicans have the worst defensive net rating and are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to centers this season.

About Zach Qualtieri

Zach is an accomplished fantasy player who has had success in multiple sports across multiple platforms. Zach specializes in cash games where he can often be found playing $25 H2Hs but has also had a lot of success in GPPs as an 11-time winner of a large field GPP. When not talking about fantasy sports, Zach enjoys hanging out with his son. If you have any questions about fantasy or sports in general Zach can be found on Twitter @zachsgotmoxy.

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