UFC Fight Night 197 – November 13, 2021: Yair Rodriguez vs Max Holloway

Fight Study (11/13/21)


The UFC’s featherweight division brings the division’s 3rd ranked contender, Yair Rodriguez, to face the top-ranked contender, Max Holloway, in a fight that will surely set up the winner for a title shot. Both men were victorious in their last visit to the octagon, and Holloway is the heavy favorite in this bout. He is also the more expensive DFS play and can be rostered for $9,500 on DraftKings and $23 on Fanduel. Rodriguez is available for $6,700 and $12 respectively. As Saturday’s Main Event, this fight is scheduled for 5 rounds of fight action and current odds make this one a -135 favorite to conclude inside the distance.

Rodriguez has a professional record of 13-2 with 1 no-contest decision. In his 13 victories, he has 4 wins by KO/TKO, 3 wins by submission, and 6 wins by decision. Rodriguez has not fought since defeating Jeremy Stephens by unanimous decision back in October of 2019. Two years later he must face one of the best boxers in the UFC in Holloway. Both fighters are tall featherweights and stand equal in height, but Rodriguez will have a 2-inch reach advantage on Saturday. This may be his only measurable advantage as he is the biggest underdog of all fighters on Saturday.

Holloway’s professional record stands at 22-6 with 10 wins by KO/TKO, 2 wins by submission, and 10 wins by decision. Since losing to Conor McGregor in 2013, he has lost just three times – once to Dustin Poirier and twice to the current champ, Alexander Volkanovski. Holloway is a skilled striker with good takedown defense. His takedown defense figures to be put to the test against Rodriguez who has a good submission game. If he is able to keep this fight upright, however, he should have a significant striking advantage.

The odds on this fight speak volumes. Rodriguez is a heavy underdog as Holloway is a significantly superior striker with vast experience in big fights like this. Rodriguez has twice fought beyond round 3 in his career, while Holloway has gone beyond the 3rd round in his last 6 fights. To take this one from Holloway, Rodriguez must employ kicks and takedowns. Holloway’s defense, however, figures to be up to the task and I anticipate high volume striking from the former champ for as long as Rodriguez can withstand it.

In DFS contests, only Holloway’s nosebleed salary limits his value on Saturday. Rodriguez is a good fighter, but I don’t believe he is prepared to go toe to toe with a fighter of Holloway’s caliber. Holloway throws strikes at such a high volume that he can bring value to his price tag, but I think in GPP contests, his exposure should be capped. In cash lineups, he is my favorite play on Saturday. With 5 rounds with which to accumulate scoring, Holloway has a very high floor. I believe his ceiling is rather high as well, but he is no guarantee to be the top scorer on Saturday as his salary would ask of him. I would consider fading Rodriguez entirely, but those who choose to give him minimal exposure in mass multi-entry contests can’t be blamed for a measure of caution.

That’s all for this edition of Fight Study. Good luck with your lineups! For more advice on DFS contests for MMA, click HERE.

About Rob

Since getting out of the casino business, Rob has been playing DFS regularly with a focus on MMA and the NFL. He now lives in Denver, CO.

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