The College Football Rundown – DraftKings & Fanduel CFB DFS – November 13, 2021

The College Football Rundown – DraftKings & Fanduel CFB DFS – November 13, 2021

Welcome back everyone – it is a joy and honor to be back for the 2021 College Football season. If you are reading this, you likely can note that it is completely free. All written content on FantasyCruncher is free – the only time you will be charged is if you want access to the optimizer and access to my projections. In that case, you can follow this link to sign up – with weekly/monthly/annual options across three different tiers that should be able to fit every level of DFS player. I will be providing written content for any slate of four games or more, though projections and optimizer access will be available for all normal and showdown slates.

Quarterback

Gerry Bohanon, BAY – DK: $7,200 | FD: $8,700

From the get-go, we can see instantly that I am excluding most top-dollar quarterback options this week as I don’t see them as necessary and/or over-priced compared to the rest of the field. Really, there are only three top-tier plays on this slate and that is Caleb Williams at 10k, C.J. Stroud at 9.4k, and Tanner Mordecai at 8.7k. All three of those guys are easily in play for us in various capacities, but personally, I think we can get some similarly high ceiling guys this week at much more reasonable pricing. We start that train of thought with Gerry Bohanon and Baylor hosting Oklahoma this weekend. Baylor is a team that typically will control the game on the ground, but outside of only 20 passing attempts last week against TCU, Bohanon has had between 27 and 31 passing attempts in his previous four games. If we are believers in game script, then Oklahoma only being favored by five should keep this game close with Baylor playing from slightly behind. The Oklahoma passing defense is one of the worst in the nation, allowing 272 yards through the air per game. This game carries the slate’s highest total at 62 and I think it has the highest potential to turn into a shootout. I have no issues if you want to roll with the opposite side here and Caleb Williams, just the price tag limits the rest of our builds a little bit.

Taulia Tagovailoa, UMD – DK: $5,900 | FD: $7,700

These last two picks carry some risk for us this week, but they also carry some very low price tags that really open up the rest of our builds. Starting with Tagovailoa and Maryland, they travel to face Michigan State this weekend who were just upset by Purdue. The Michigan State pass defense was absolutely picked apart by Aidan O’Connell, as he passed for 536 yards in the upset victory. Pass defense has been the issue with this Spartans team all year, as they are allowing over 305 yards passing per game. In last week’s loss to Penn State, Tagovailoa attempted a season-high 57 pass attempts for 371 yards and one touchdown. Targeting Purdue was way more attractive last week against Michigan State as we got them at home and Purdue has David Bell, an elite pass catcher. We don’t really get that with Maryland, but we do get a team who will be playing from behind and throwing all game. Tags has attempted 40 or more passes over the last two games so we should get guaranteed volume again. Whether or not that volume is seized upon or not remains to be seen, but the matchup on paper is about as good as we could hope for here. Maryland should lose this game – I doubt we see some surprising victory, but Maryland attempted 57 passes in a 17-point loss last week, so we also shouldn’t get any quit out of this team. This is by no means a lock, but at the price, we have 4x upside.

Aidan O’Connell, PUR – DK: $5,400 | FD: $7,000

Aidan O’Connell has really stepped up this year in the biggest of matchups as he threw for 375 yards and two touchdowns against one-time #2 Iowa a few weeks ago, and then last week threw for 536 yards and three touchdowns against then #3 Michigan State. While last week against Michigan State was a big product of the poor Michigan State pass defense, O’Connell gets another chance to shine against #4 Ohio State. The Buckeyes will feature a much tougher defense here, but one that is still allowing near 250 passing yards per game. While I understand matchup goes a lot into DraftKings pricing, getting a price drop after throwing for almost 550 yards feels a little silly to me. Now, we can’t get tunnel vision here – Aidan O’Connell is not a mistake-free quarterback, but he is one who has a completion percentage of 75% over his last four games. Even against Wisconsin and Nebraska, O’Connell had respectable games, just not ones that equated in team wins. I say the words “game script” a lot, but if you are a believer in it, then we can assume that Purdue will be playing from behind here – Ohio State is a 21.5-point home favorite here. But at 5.4k, I am fine taking a shot on O’Connell + David Bell stacks at a discount

Running back

Braelon Allen, WISC – DK: $8,200 | FD: N/A

After losing three of their first four games (to Penn State, Notre Dame, and Michigan) the Wisconsin Badgers have won five-straight games and control their own destiny in the Big Ten West. The Badgers offense has come alive over the past few weeks, which mostly starts from more consistent quarterback play from Graham Mertz. But also during that stretch would be the emergence of freshman 17-year-old Braelon Allen. After the Badgers dismissed second-year running back Jared Berger, Allen has had five-straight games over 100 yards rushing and that was with him playing backup to Chez Mellusi. Well, Mellusi suffered a leg injury last week and he was officially ruled out for the rest of the season so the Badgers will now look to Allen as their primary ball-handler and I have to say the sky really is the limit for this kid. I can actually still say kid too, as again, Allen is just 17-years-old. We have seen great running backs come through Wisconsin and Allen may be one of the physically strongest for some time – not to mention the time he has to still grow and bulk. Northwestern is allowing 225 yards rushing per game – Northwestern is also currently projected at just eight total points. It is going to be cold, cloudy, and Wisconsin weather in a game that has Wisconsin projected for around five touchdowns at home. Allen’s price is up there but the depth is now being challenged for the Badgers. If you are looking at a volume-adjusted play, Allen should be the entire Badgers offense Saturday. If you want the dart backup, Julius Davis is only $3,000 and should see some work here.

Jaylan Knighton, MIA – DK: $7,900 | FD: $9,200

The Miami Hurricanes have been playing some close and exciting football recently, including a three-point win over Georgia Tech, a four-point win over Pittsburgh, and a one-point win over NC State. The new offense under Tyler Van Dyke is really coming into view and this has been a team that has moved the ball way more efficiently than earlier in the season. That isn’t a knock on D’Eriq King, but with a truer pocket passer at the helm, guys like Charleston Rambo are actually able to let their skill shine through when given the necessary volume. The same can be said for Knighton, who was suspended at the front-end of the season but eventually took over as the starter after some injuries. Over his last four starts, Knighton is averaging nearly 30 fantasy points per game and took 32 carries for 162 yards and a touchdown last week. While he didn’t have any receptions last week against Georgia Tech, Knighton had 13 combined receptions in his previous three games. A matchup with Florida State should provide plenty of lanes for Knighton as the Seminoles haven’t been successful at stopping the pass or rush this year and are allowing near 400 yards per game total.

Dillon Johnson, MSST – DK: $3,900 | FD: $5,900

A slightly unorthodox play here this week, but Dillon Johnson’s price caught my eye this weekend as it dropped $600 down to $3,900 from its usual level of 4.5-5k. Johnson is a backup running back, but he is more of a pass-catching back than anything. In fact, Johnson has more receiving yards than rushing yards this year and through nine games has 47 receptions for 273 yards. Since week two of the season, Johnson has scored over 10.6 fantasy points in six of eight games, with his only game under 9.3 fantasy points being against Alabama. So at face value, we are looking at a flat 2.5x value on his DraftKings salary based solely around receptions and reception yardage. As a bonus, Johnson has had seven or more carries in each of his last four games, including 19 over his last two. Auburn’s defense is middle of the pack in almost all categories. While this isn’t the flashiest overall play, Johnson remains involved in this offense in two different ways and that is just not something we are ever going to get at this price point.

Wide receiver

Tyquan Thornton, BAY – DK: $6,800 | FD: $8,000

While these articles usually do end up being QB/WR stacks, the Thornton play can also be stand-alone if you don’t want to stack with Bohanon. Over Thornton’s last four games he has 23 receptions for over 440 yards and four touchdowns. Thornton has a 31.3% target share in the offense and with a great matchup against Oklahoma, he makes for an underpriced play on this slate. The risk in this play is the total volume of passing from the Baylor offense is always a little hard to predict, but Thornton has eight or more targets in each of his last five games. Not only is Thornton the big-play threat in this passing game, he also is the volume guy. He also threw for a touchdown two weeks ago – I doubt that happens again – it just shows how involved he is.

David Bell, PUR – DK: $6,700 | FD: $8,700

David Bell caught 11 passes for 217 yards last week against Michigan State on 16 targets. Over Bell’s last four games he has a total of 52 targets and is averaging 11.5 targets per game on the year. In big wins this year, Bell has been the main reason, as he had 240 yards against Iowa and 217 as mentioned against Michigan State. The matchup with Ohio State is tougher on paper, but it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to highlight the path to victory for Purdue here. There is more risk in Bell this week than last, but that risk is diminished a bit by DraftKings dropping his price by $700 after a 41.7 fantasy point game. Again, I know pricing is matchup dependant, but DraftKings also raised Jahan Dotson’s price by $1,200 after positing 56.2 fantasy points despite facing Michigan. There is a clear different view on Penn State vs. Purdue here, but I think you understand the point I am making.

Mike Harley, MIA – DK: $4,200 | FD: $6,200

There are a lot of lower-priced wide-outs this weekend who are all decent floor plays, but it is hard to separate them to find the one who has the higher ceiling. While Mike Harley’s season has been underwhelming in general, he still carries a respectable 17% target share and around 6.5 targets per game. While Harley carried a slightly higher share with King than Van Dyke, the Miami offense has been better recently under Van Dyke. Key’Shawn Smith is $900 more than Harley here, yet Harley has a slightly higher target share in the offense. While this may not be a flashy play, I see value in this play and if Harley can find the end zone we likely hit this play’s ceiling rather than the floor.

Other Value on this slate that can also be found on the Cheat Sheet would be Reggie Roberson, Tre Mosley, Rakim Jarrett, and Jackson Anthrop. All these guys fall in the 4-5k range and present strong value this week compared to their pricing. Roberson has an established floor in a strong passing game. Mosley is a red zone threat with Nailor out. Jarrett is the top stacking piece with Tagovalioa, and Anthrop has been more involved in the Purdue passing game.

Click here for Saturday’s Cheat Sheets for both DraftKings and FanDuel

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About James Smizek

James is a Daily Fantasy Sports Veteran dating all the way back to his days of writing content on DraftStreet.com for contest tickets. James specializes in College Football - qualifying for the CFB World Championship in 2018, though you can find his content for NFL, NBA, MLB, and NASCAR on FantasyCruncher. James also picked up some new tricks during the Covid/sports shutdown, carving out a niche in League of Legends, Rocket League, and Call of Duty eSports. A winner of multiple large field GPP's, James hopes his knowledge can help you take down the next one. James currently resides in Wisconsin and is a huge Wisconsin sports fan. If you have any questions you can reach out to him @iKezims on Twitter.

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