Top DFS Plays for UFC Fight Night 197: Holloway vs Rodriguez (11/13/21)
The UFC returns to Las Vegas for more MMA action from the UFC’s Apex Facility. Our analysis will take a deeper look at some of my favorite plays for DFS contests on Saturday.
Fighter to Build Your Lineups Around
SEAN WOODSON (DK $9,200 / FD $21) – Woodson is 8-1 over his career with 3 finishes and 5 decisions to his credit. He has already won twice in three tries inside the UFC octagon with wins over Kyle Bochniak and Youssef Zalal. He is a heavy favorite on Saturday over Collin Anglin who lost his only UFC fight to date by second-round TKO. Woodson’s fantasy scoring is a bit of a concern, but his winning potential is very good in this fight. Woodson stands 5 inches taller than Anglin and has a 7-inch reach advantage as well.
(At the time of this writing, Sean Woodson is -329 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 74.26 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
Fighter with the Best Value
MIGUEL BAEZA (DK $8,500 / FD $18) – Baeza’s record stands at 10-1 with 7 wins by KO/TKO, 1 win by submission, and 2 wins by decision. His only loss came by decision to elite UFC veteran, Santiago Ponzinibbio. He will face Khaos Williams who has started 3-1 in the UFC, but he has yet to face a fighter of Baeza’s finishing potential. Overall, this fight should be a competitive one, but Baeza’s finishing ability gives him a lot of value at a price slightly above the average. In multi-entry contests, it may be wise to play both sides of this one, but Baeza is my preferred play and I like him to get a finish in this one.
(At the time of this writing, Miguel Baeza is -146 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 62.64 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
Fighter with the Best Upset Potential
KENNEDY NZECHUKWU (DK $7,900 / FD $15) – After being submitted by Paul Craig in his UFC debut, Nzechukwu has since gone on to win his next three in the octagon. He has scored KO/TKO wins in his last two fights and is a danger to finish any fighter he faces. He faces Da Un Jung who also has 3 wins in the UFC and is a worthy opponent. Still, given Nzechukwu’s ability to finish opponents, he is not only a live dog in this fight but one who can put up a big score.
(At the time of this writing, Kennedy Nzechukwu is +100 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 14.82 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!