DFS Analysis of UFC Fight Night 197: Holloway vs Rodriguez (November 13, 2021)

Top DFS Plays for UFC Fight Night 197: Holloway vs Rodriguez (11/13/21)

The UFC returns to Las Vegas for more MMA action from the UFC’s Apex Facility. Our analysis will take a deeper look at some of my favorite plays for DFS contests on Saturday.

 

Fighter to Build Your Lineups Around

SEAN WOODSON (DK $9,200 / FD $21) – Woodson is 8-1 over his career with 3 finishes and 5 decisions to his credit. He has already won twice in three tries inside the UFC octagon with wins over Kyle Bochniak and Youssef Zalal. He is a heavy favorite on Saturday over Collin Anglin who lost his only UFC fight to date by second-round TKO. Woodson’s fantasy scoring is a bit of a concern, but his winning potential is very good in this fight. Woodson stands 5 inches taller than Anglin and has a 7-inch reach advantage as well.

(At the time of this writing, Sean Woodson is -329 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 74.26 on Fantasy Cruncher.) 

 

Fighter with the Best Value

MIGUEL BAEZA (DK $8,500 / FD $18) – Baeza’s record stands at 10-1 with 7 wins by KO/TKO, 1 win by submission, and 2 wins by decision. His only loss came by decision to elite UFC veteran, Santiago Ponzinibbio. He will face Khaos Williams who has started 3-1 in the UFC, but he has yet to face a fighter of Baeza’s finishing potential. Overall, this fight should be a competitive one, but Baeza’s finishing ability gives him a lot of value at a price slightly above the average. In multi-entry contests, it may be wise to play both sides of this one, but Baeza is my preferred play and I like him to get a finish in this one.

(At the time of this writing, Miguel Baeza is -146 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 62.64 on Fantasy Cruncher.) 

 

Fighter with the Best Upset Potential

KENNEDY NZECHUKWU (DK $7,900 / FD $15) – After being submitted by Paul Craig in his UFC debut, Nzechukwu has since gone on to win his next three in the octagon. He has scored KO/TKO wins in his last two fights and is a danger to finish any fighter he faces. He faces Da Un Jung who also has 3 wins in the UFC and is a worthy opponent. Still, given Nzechukwu’s ability to finish opponents, he is not only a live dog in this fight but one who can put up a big score.

(At the time of this writing, Kennedy Nzechukwu is +100 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 14.82 on Fantasy Cruncher.) 

 

That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!

About Rob

Since getting out of the casino business, Rob has been playing DFS regularly with a focus on MMA and the NFL. He now lives in Denver, CO.

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