DFS Analysis of UFC 268: Usman vs Covington 2 (November 6, 2021)

Top DFS Plays for UFC 268: Usman vs Covington 2 (11/6/21)


The UFC heads to Madison Square Garden in New York City for UFC 268. Our analysis will take a deeper look at some of my favorite plays for DFS contests on Saturday.

 

Fighter to Build Your Lineups Around

MELSIK BAGHDASARYAN (DK $9,200 / FD $21) – Since losing his first-ever professional fight Baghdasaryan has gone on to win his next 6 fights with 5 finishes (including 4 in the first round). In his UFC debut, he scored a second-round KO of Collin Anglin back in July of this year. In that fight, he scored 101.1 FP (DraftKings scoring – 113.4 FP on Fanduel). He faces Bruno Souza who is also on an extended win streak but whose victories over his past 5 fights include two split decisions and a win by opponent disqualification. Baghdasaryan is a heavy favorite in this fight and has the 6th best odds of all fighters on Saturday to score a finish. Souza will be making his UFC debut.

(At the time of this writing, Melsik Baghdasaryan is -278 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 72.17 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

 

Fighter with the Best Value

JUSTIN GAETHJE (DK $8,900 / FD $18) – Since joining the UFC, Gaethje has scored no less than 97 FP (DraftKings scoring) in victory with an average of 107.5 FPPF in those wins. He is 4-1 over his last 5 fights with his only loss over that span coming from the former champ, Khabib Nurmagomedov. He will face Michael Chandler who is 1-1 since joining the UFC in January of this year. Gaethje is the significant favorite in this fight and is a -130 favorite to score a finish. Yet, he is priced below $9k in salary on DraftKings and just $2 over the average on Fanduel.

(At the time of this writing, Justin Gaethje is -216 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 66.42 on Fantasy Cruncher.) 

 

Fighter with the Best Upset Potential

EDMEN SHAHBAZYAN (DK $7,700 / FD $15) – Shahbazyan has a record of 11-2 with 9 wins by KO/TKO, 1 win by submission, and 1 win by decision. His only two losses have come at the hands of Derek Brunson and Jack Hermansson. He has 10 finishes to his credit – all coming inside the first round. He faces Nassourdine Imavov who is 2-1 in the UFC. This fight will be a very close one, but Shahbazyan’s scoring potential makes him a great value in GPP contests. In his 4 wins since joining the UFC, he has averaged 111.2 FPPF (DraftKings scoring). Although Shahbazyan is priced below the average on both platforms, his scoring potential is well above average.

(At the time of this writing, Edmen Shahbazyan is -101 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 53.40 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

 

That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!

About Rob

Since getting out of the casino business, Rob has been playing DFS regularly with a focus on MMA and the NFL. He now lives in Denver, CO.

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