UFC 267 – October 30, 2021: Glover Teixeira vs Jan Blachowicz

Fight Study (10/30/21)

The light heavyweight division title is on the line when the #1 ranked contender, Glover Teixeira, takes on the reigning champion, Jan Blachowicz, from Fight Island in Abu Dhabi on Saturday. Both fighters are on 5-fight win streaks, and the champ is the significant favorite in this one. He is also the more expensive DFS play on both platforms. Blachowicz can be rostered for $9,000 on DraftKings and $22 on Fanduel. Teixeira is available for $7,200 and $16 respectively. As a title fight, this bout is scheduled for 5 rounds of fight action, but current odds point toward an earlier conclusion as this fight is a -240 favorite to end before reaching the judges’ scorecards.

Teixeira has a career record of 32-7 with 18 wins by KO/TKO, 9 wins by submission, and 5 wins by decision. He has won 5 straight coming into Saturday’s fight and has 4 finishes during that span. In his last fight, he scored a submission victory over Thiago Santos – the last man to defeat Blachowicz. At age 42, this is his last chance at a title and he will be willing to lay it all on the line here. He is a well-rounded fighter with power in his hands and excellent grappling as well. Despite his age, he is fighting better than ever at this point in his career. He is also a true finisher in the octagon with 12 finishes out of 15 wins since joining the UFC.

Blachowicz is 28-8 as a professional with 8 wins by KO/TKO, 9 wins by submission, and 11 wins by decision. He won the light heavyweight belt with a second-round TKO of Dominick Reyes after the title was vacated by Jon Jones. He followed up that victory with a unanimous decision win over the current middleweight champ, Israel Adesanya, who moved up to 205 lb. in an attempt to become champ/champ. He has good hands, solid grappling, and a solid chin. His chin will be tested against Teixeira who has considerable power and surprisingly quick hands for a fighter of his age.

No matter how I look at this fight, it still surprises me that the oddsmakers have made Blachowicz such a heavy favorite. If nothing else can be learned from Teixeira’s current win streak, it should be clear that he is an elite fighter – and one of the toughest outs in the UFC. During his win streak, he dominated Anthony Smith and submitted the likes of Karl Roberson, Ion Cutelaba, and Thiago Santos. Blachowicz is not a paper champion by any means, but he has yet to demonstrate that he is a dominant champ with only one title defense to date (and against an undersized middleweight). I expect this fight to be tightly contested and give Teixeira a very good chance in this one.

In DFS contests, I prefer Teixeira’s value over Blachowicz’s win probability. On DraftKings especially, Teixeira is very underpriced at nearly a grand under the average salary. Even on Fanduel, where he is priced at the average salary, his potential to score well in a 5 round fight makes him a very good value. His finishing history gives him a very high ceiling and Blachowicz doesn’t figure to get an easy finish against a fighter who has only been defeated 3 times inside the distance in a nearly 40-fight career. I think Blachowicz is the favorite to win for good reason, but the disparity of the odds is skewed. I would suggest using this fight cautiously but will give the edge in exposure to Teixeira.

That’s all for this edition of Fight Study. Good luck with your lineups! For more advice on DFS contests for MMA, click HERE.

About Rob

Since getting out of the casino business, Rob has been playing DFS regularly with a focus on MMA and the NFL. He now lives in Denver, CO.

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