Top DFS Plays for UFC 267: Blachowicz vs Teixeira (10/30/21)
The UFC returns to Fight Island for more MMA action from Abu Dhabi. Our analysis will take a deeper look at some of my favorite plays for DFS contests on Saturday.
Fighter to Build Your Lineups Around
KHAMZAT CHIMAEV (DK $9,500 / FD $23) – It’s not easy spending the kind of salary attached to Chimaev on Saturday, but he is worth it. He is the second-biggest favorite of all fighters in UFC 267, he is the biggest favorite to get a finish, and he has the highest fantasy average with now three UFC fights under his belt. In fact, although Islam Makhachev is a bigger favorite he is averaging nearly 30 FPPF less than Chimaev. Makhachev is also +174 to get a finish compared to Chimaev at -175. Chimaev will face Li Jingliang who is a very good fighter, but Chimaev’s grappling is the kind that makes great fighters look completely outmatched in a way that is very reminiscent of Khabib Nurmagomedov. If there is any cause for concern, it is his extended layoff, but I don’t see that being a factor whatsoever.
(At the time of this writing, Khamzat Chimaev is -592 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 82.85 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
Fighter with the Best Value
ANDRE PETROSKI (DK $8,600 / FD $17) – Petroski has a career record of 6-1 with a perfect finishing rate in victory including 4 wins by KO/TKO and 2 wins by submission. In his UFC debut, he dominated Michael Gillmore getting a third-round TKO and scoring 4 takedowns while posting a control time of 7:38 in the 13:12 fight. He faces Hu Yaozong who is 0-2 in the UFC after making his debut with the promotion after just 3 professional MMA fights. These fighters are at drastically different levels and Petroski is only priced so well in DFS contests due to the wealth of talent at the top of this card.
(At the time of this writing, Andre Petroski is -234 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 68.27 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
Fighter with the Best Upset Potential
MICHAL OLEKSIEJCZUK (DK $7,800 / FD $14) – This card is full of strong favorites, but a little lacking in live dogs. Oleksiejczuk, however, is priced nicely below the average and is the smallest underdog on Saturday. He faces Shamil Gamzatov as an even-money dog. Gamzatov is a perfect 14-0 as a professional but will be fighting for only the second time in the UFC. In Gamzatov’s octagon debut, he fought to a split decision win over Klidson Abreu. Oleksiejczuk is a much better fighter than Abreu. After a no-decision fight in his UFC debut, he went on to finish his next two opponents in the first round. Although he lost his next two fights (against high-level UFC veterans Ovince St. Preux and Jimmy Crute), he rebounded with a decision win over Modestas Bukauskas in May of this year. He is certainly live in this fight and his ceiling is high with 10 KO/TKO wins to date as a professional.
(At the time of this writing, Michal Oleksiejczuk is +100 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 54.87 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!