The College Football Rundown – DraftKings & Fanduel CFB DFS – October 30, 2021
Welcome back everyone – it is a joy and honor to be back for the 2021 College Football season. If you are reading this, you likely can note that it is completely free. All written content on FantasyCruncher is free – the only time you will be charged is if you want access to the optimizer and access to my projections. In that case, you can follow this link to sign up – with weekly/monthly/annual options across three different tiers that should be able to fit every level of DFS player. I will be providing written content for any slate of four games or more, though projections and optimizer access will be available for all normal and showdown slates.
Sam Hartman, WAKE – DK: $9,000 | FD: $11,500
With Caleb Williams on the slate taking on a soft Texas Tech defense it is hard to pivot away from that, but with Sam Hartman a full $1,000 cheaper and playing some of the best form of his career right now I think for top-tier options, Hartman offers a similar ceiling for some cost savings. Hartman has 19 touchdown passes on the year and is averaging over 39 fantasy points per game over his last three starts. Hartman torched the Army secondary last week, throwing for 458 yards and five touchdown passes on just23 competitions. On top of the passing prowess, Hartman has a rushing touchdown now in each of his last three games and while he doesn’t use his legs a ton, Hartman has five or more rushing attempts in half of his starts this year. The Demon Deacons have top to bottom talent in their offense, but Hartman has really put all his pieces together recently. Despite the price jump, Hartman gets possibly a better on-paper matchup on paper this week against Duke. The Duke defense currently ranks almost dead last in the nation in passing defense and is allowing 31 points per game and 443 yards. Wake Forest carries a 43 point team total into this matchup which is second behind Oklahoma.
Skylar Thompson, KSU – DK: $7,300 | FD: $8,800
We got Thompson at a much more affordable price last weekend, but his price jump here still isn’t putting it out of play for us. Thompson ended with 296 yards passing last week and only one touchdown which suppressed the fantasy totals a bit. It was also Thompson’s third straight game of negative rushing yards which is outside the normal for Thompson. I talked last week about how once Thompson returned from injury it seemed he was trying to be a bit more of a pocket passer, which in theory has worked with some much improved passing numbers. The reason I am back on Thompson this week however is the matchup with TCU. TCU has been absolutely torched on the ground this year, allowing over 212 yards per game and 451 total yards per game. This will keep Thompson’s arm in play while also providing the dual-threat option for him if it is in the game plan. Every time I roster someone against TCU I flashback to when SMU put up over 340 yards on the ground against them back in late September. Duece Vaughn should have a field day here, but his price has jumped to a very high level. Thompson is a cheaper way to get exposure to this game.
Henry Colombi, TTU – DK: $5,400 | FD: $7,400
It is always a little scary rostering a guy based on the fact that you expect them to be blown out, but that is the upside here for Texas Tech against Oklahoma. Oklahoma is a 20-point favorite here, which if we assume game script goes as followed, Texas Tech has really no real upside to running the ball here. Their offense likely moves better while running the ball (and of course they still will in some capacity), but assuming they are playing from behind then Colombi will be throwing more than his 18.5 attempt average over the last two games. If we date back to games where Texas Tech has played from behind recently we say Colombi attempt 41 passes against TCU and 23 against Texas. The 23 against Texas isn’t a big number, but it also was his most efficient game, throwing for 324 yards and three touchdowns – though for fairness, Texas was up a lot and was playing some reserves. While Oklahoma sports a solid rush defense, they are allowing 273 yards passing per game. There is room to move the ball against this team, it more so just comes down to if Colombi and the offense is able to do so. If this game follows script, Texas Tech’s run game should be bottled up leading to some extended opportunities for Colombi. Whether or not he seizes them is out of our hands but going strictly off of price, there is intriguing superflex upside here for a very low price.
Travis Dye, ORE – DK: $8,700 | FD: $9,800
I have said this before (and meant it before) but this is really one of the most loaded top-tier running back weeks I have seen. Bijan Robinson, Duece Vaugh, Jerome Ford, Breece Hall, Travis Dye, Kennedy Brooks, and Blake Corum are all above $8,000 on DraftKings and all feel like they could be “the guy” who breaks the slate open. In fact, I am pretty confident in saying one of those guys above are a lock to be in the optimal lineup and I wouldn’t be shocked to see two. So, how do we separate them? That is the struggle this week and as much as you want to have a clear-cut answer, there isn’t always one. Deuce Vaughn has the best individual matchup against a terrible TCU run defense. Jerome Ford should have little resistance against Tulane, and Breece Hall is set for a workhorse role against West Virginia. When I take in all the factors, including price, and passing game work, I keep landing on Travis Dye over the rest, however. Dye has five rushing touchdowns over his last two games and 15 receptions over his last three. With Verdell out of the picture, there has been no resistance from other backs and despite being bottled up for 35 yards rushing last week, Dye still was able to be the red zone option. This week Oregon gets a home matchup against a Colorado team who is actually just purely awful despite their defense appearing better than it is on paper. Colorado has scored three total points over their last eight quarters of football which should keep the ball in the hands of the Oregon offense if we follow the game script here.
Will Shipley, CLEM – DK: $5,700 | FD: $6,400
With fellow running back Kobe Pace already ruled out for this game and the Clemson offense as a whole being a little bit of a mess, Will Shipley feels like the only consistent option the Tigers have. Clemson has not yet named a starter for this game against Florida State, so it reinforces the running game a little bit here. Shipley only saw 10 carries last week, turning them into 52 yards, but that also came in a loss against Pitt. This week Clemson gets a little more friendly of a matchup with a Florida State team that is allowing around four touchdowns a game and a shade under 400 yards. Shipley has only had one chance to be a feature back this year, and that was back in week three against Georgia Tech where he ran for 88 yards and two touchdowns. The price here on both sites, but especially FanDuel helps us save while still keeping a pretty nice ceiling.
Vincent Davis, PITT – DK: $3,900 | FD: $5,700
Vincent Davis here again?! Sure is – while last week didn’t provide us the ceiling, we still got exactly what was explained and that was a floor of around 8-9 fantasy points. I know, this is not the sexy pick you guys are coming here for, but this article is geared towards lineup construction of all kinds – tournament and cash. Davis remains a cash option weekly just simply due to him getting the work. Davis has double-digit carries in all games besides two this year and has six receptions over his last three games. Fellow running back and usual starter Israel Abanikanda is questionable with a concussion. This won’t cement any more work to Davis, but one less mouth would be a positive. In the end, Davis is still a part of this Pitt offense that has been very effective at moving the ball. They are favorites this week against a Miami team that carries a below-average defense and with possible rain in the forecast we could be looking at more work on the ground. On top of this, Pitt’s top receiver in Jordan Addison is questionable, making the running game appear to me at least the thing that will lead the offense this week.
Jaquarii Roberson, WAKE – DK: $7,600 | FD: $9,000
While I spoke above at the running back position being loaded this weekend we get the opposite with receiver where Roberson here is actually the most expensive option on DraftKings at $7,600. Roberson had a slow start to the season but has ramped up the connection with Hartman that we saw all of last season. Over Roberson’s last three games he has a total of 31 targets, 23 receptions, 407 yards, and three scores. Roberson carries a near 30% target share in this offense and draws a matchup with one of the worst passing defenses in the nation this week.
Justyn Ross, CLEM – DK: $6,200 | FD: $6,600
This is a tough play for me this weekend but the reason it is making my article is the price he carries on FanDuel. As I mentioned with Will Shipley, the Clemson offense has struggled mightily this season and there is currently not a quarterback named for this weekend. Putting the noise aside though, Ross still carries a 26.2% target share in this offense and is still averaging eight targets per game and 18 over his last two. While the Clemson offense has struggled this season, they also have faced some stiff defenses over the last few weeks with Syracuse and Pitt, both games coming on the road. Despite the matchups and the environments (and poor QB play), Ross has still managed over 10 fantasy points in each of his last two games and the consistent target share. This week should soften up against Florida State and a home matchup is what Clemson needs. I don’t think it matters for me who starts at quarterback, as Ross is a top piece in this offense regardless. On DraftKings I like the play, but it is still dedicating a chunk of salary, on FanDuel it opens up so many running back options that it is amazing to me that he is cheaper than the man I and writing up below.
Taysir Mack, PITT – DK: $4,700 | FD: $6,700
There is a small caveat here as Mack becomes a much more appealing play if Jordan Addison is ruled out (currently questionable), but really regardless of the statis the price on Mack here feels too low. Mack was this same price last week against Clemson and caught three passes for 59 yards and a touchdown. While Mack only has a 16% target share, he does have 14 targets over his last two contests against considerably tougher passing defenses than what awaits him this week against Miami. There has been some boom or bust with Mack this year, with four games over 11.4 fantasy points and three under 6.4, but the matchup is here in what should stay a competitive game and if Addison does happen to be ruled out, this jets up my boards as one of my favorite plays of the week. Jared Wayne at $4,000 enters this conversation for the same reasons this week as well.