DraftKings & FanDuel NASCAR DFS – Hollywood Casino 400 – October 24, 2021
Alex Bowman – DK: $9,800 | FD: $9,000 – Starting 25th
The Cup Series lands in Kansas this week for a track that since 2018 (seven races) no driver has a better average finish than sixth. That mostly means this week we can spread out exposure pretty wide and there shouldn’t be that one option that has historically crushed this track. That being said, in the field, we have just one two-time winner in the last three years and that is Denny Hamlin, who has two wins – though just three top-fives. So we have a few choices on this slate – do we follow a top ten starting car that has shown at least a pulse at this track in the past? This list is Hamlin, Busch, Elliot, Harvick, Keselowski. Or do we attack the pure differential upside of Alex Bowman who is starting 25th? In Bowman’s last seven races here he has seven top-20 finishes and two top-five finishes. Bowman grades out as around the ninth-best driver at this track in recent memory and despite some recent road bumps (this is something we have come to expect with Bowman), the 25th starting spot really gives us some of the highest ceiling on the slate. So the drawbacks? Kansas has proven to be more of a high variance track recently than most would think. For me, I will take the heavy discount on FanDuel and the differential upside on DraftKings.
Chase Briscoe – DK: $6,600 | FD: $7,300 – Starting 19th
While Briscoe only has four top-ten finishes in 34 races on the year, he is still averaging 27.5 fantasy points per race including seven races over 29 fantasy points over his last ten. At the Xfinity level, Briscoe has taken a checkered flag here at Kansas, with a win in October of 2020 and a third-place finish in October of 2019. In Briscoe’s Xfinity race in 2020, he led 159 laps, winning both stages in a dominant performance. While it is clear and obvious that the Cup level is a way different beast, we at least get a track that Briscoe has some experience at. Briscoe has been in competitive equipment all year and this play at price seems safer than some guys priced below (and above) him.
$ Tier D High Denny Hamlin (11k / 56.45) (13.5k / 56.45) Martin Truex (10.4k / 53.15) (10.5k / 53.15) Chase Elliott (10k / 49.23) (12.5k / 49.23) Alex Bowman (9.8k / 55.41) (9k / 55.41) Medium Kevin Harvick (8.9k / 51.93) (9.5k / 51.93) Joey Logano (8.7k / 45.55) (9.8k / 45.55) Kurt Busch (8.5k / 41.48) (8.5k / 41.48) Aric Almirola (7.6k / 37.58) (7.7k / 37.58) Parker Kligerman (7.1k / 29.72) (4.5k / 29.72) Low Chase Briscoe (6.6k / 26.68) (7.3k / 26.68) Chris Buescher (6.3k / 26.68) (6.7k / 26.68) Erik Jones (6.1k / 28.98) (6.5k / 28.98) Ryan Preece (5.7k / 20.02) (5k / 20.02)