DFS Analysis of UFC Fight Night 196: Costa vs Vettori (October 23, 2021)

Top DFS Plays for UFC Fight Night 196: Costa vs Vettori (10/23/21)


The UFC returns to Las Vegas for more MMA action from the UFC’s Apex Facility. Our analysis will take a deeper look at some of my favorite plays for DFS contests on Saturday.

 

Fighter to Build Your Lineups Around

GRANT DAWSON (DK $9,300 / FD $22) – Since joining the UFC, Dawson has been on a tear with 5 straight wins with 3 finishes and an average of 98.8 FPPF (Draft Kings scoring). He will fight Rick Glenn on Saturday. Glenn is 4-3 in the UFC with a 1-1 record in the lightweight division. Both fighters have fought primarily in the featherweight division with Dawson winning his only fight as a lightweight by a 3rd round KO/TKO over Leonardo Santos in his most recent fight. Dawson comes into this fight as the biggest favorite of the night and with the highest average of all fighters on Saturday with more than one UFC fight to their credit.

(At the time of this writing, Grant Dawson is -455 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 76.12 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

 

Fighter with the Best Value

JESSICA-ROSE CLARK (DK $8,500 / FD $17) – For Saturday’s event, Clark has the 7th best fantasy average yet is 10th in salary on DraftKings. She is 8th by average on Fanduel while being priced at a tie for 11th among all fighters on that platform. She has improved her striking drastically since joining the UFC in 2017 and in her last fight she obliterated Sarah Alpar over three rounds for her highest fantasy score yet. She will face Joselyne Edwards who is 1-1 in the UFC and lost her own bout with Alpar in 2018. JRC is a fighter coming into her own while Edwards is still figuring out her place in the UFC. Look for Clark to get a relatively easy win by decision in this one.

(At the time of this writing, Jessica-Rose Clark is -164 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 63.01 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

 

Fighter with the Best Upset Potential

KHAMA WORTHY (DK $7,400 / FD $11) – Worthy comes into this fight as the underdog despite the fact that in two tries his opponent, Jai Herbert, has yet to win in the UFC. Worthy has also lost his last two fights in the octagon but had a 7 fight win streak prior to that. He has finishes over Devonte Smith and Luis Peña to his credit including both a submission and KO/TKO finish. Herbert has lost both of his UFC fights inside the distance with losses by both KO/TKO and by submission. This fight figures to be a brawl and Worthy’s chances are good. His upside in fantasy scoring makes him my favorite underdog on Saturday.

(At the time of this writing, Khama Worthy is +154 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 46.34 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

 

That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!

About Rob

Since getting out of the casino business, Rob has been playing DFS regularly with a focus on MMA and the NFL. He now lives in Denver, CO.

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