Welcome to the Monday, October 11, 2021 MLB DFS slate rundown for FanDuel, DraftKings & Yahoo! playoff fantasy baseball contests
We have another 4 game playoff slate here today, with both the White Sox and Rays on the brink of elimination in their series.
We’ll run through both the pitching and hitting side of things, with the goal of uncovering a key nugget or two along the way that you’ll be able to leverage as you build your cash game and tournament rosters this afternoon.
With this in mind for both the Rays and White Sox, it’ll be awfully hard to trust their respective starters in DFS. Carlos Rodon had a heck of a year in particular, and dominated the Astros in 2 starts this season (14 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 18 Ks). But he hasn’t really been himself since returning from injury going a max of 5 IP in each of his last 8 outings. It’s safer to fade both team’s arms here.
I’m also not too interested in Jose Urquidy or Eduardo Rodriguez either, even with their teams being a leg up in the series. E-Rod should have a short leash against a TB team who crushes LHP and hit him pretty well when they last faced off. Urquidy’s been better overall, but there’s limited K upside and the White Sox are a tough offensive draw. Urquidy also has a mere 4.47 SIERA in his last 5 starts, with a heavy fly ball bias and a 39.5% hard contact rate.
The tilt with Milwaukee and Atlanta has to see the edge go to Freddy Peralta here over Ian Anderson. Anderson’s a talented young arm, but has a 4.1 BB/9 in his last month of action with a 4.59 SIERA, and has one of the lower floors on the slate. Meanwhile, Peralta’s 3.04 SIERA and elite 11.6 K/9 with a miniscule 1.3 BB/9 in his last month of action are very encouraging. I have no problem running Peralta out with a high percentage of exposure in this pivotal game 3.
The marquee pitching matchup here has to come down to Alex Wood and Max Scherzer. Historical data for the Dodgers bats against Wood is very lopsided, as there are 7 active bats with wOBAs over .400 against him in the last few years of ABs. Wood’s still a good ground ball producer when he’s right, but with a team that clearly sees the ball well out of his hand – there’s minimal interest to get cute with exposure here.
Instead, the play has to be Max Scherzer. He’s owned the majority of Giants hitters historically, except for Tommy La Stella and Brandon Crawford really. If the Giants are going to have success, they’ll have to work deep counts, get lucky on some softer contact finding holes, and hope that the likes of Crawford happens to continue his hot-hitting ways against the future hall of famer. There are a lot of things that have to go right for San Fran to put up numbers against Max, so the safe play is to ride the home righty here.
So, if you can afford Peralta and Scherzer on DK – that’s the combo I’d be rolling with. Based on some early crunches, that duo still leaves you with a ton of cash to work with for bats and is easy to get behind.
HITTING STACKS/MINI STACKS TO CONSIDER
The White Sox currently sit at 4.51 runs, which leads the slate at this point in time. We dont have a line yet in the BOS/TB game, but I do expect it’ll be at the 8.5-9.0 run level which will make both of those teams quite attractive, too.
Chicago has plenty of bats with solid numbers in the split vs RHP. Yasmani Grandal, Luis Robert and Yoan Moncada are three of the top names here (150, 135 and 129 wRC+ marks in the split this season). Adam Engel and Gavin Sheets are intriguing as well, albeit with limited ABs, if they happen to be in the lineup. Surprisingly enough, Engel leads the Sox over 91 PA with a wRC+ mark of 154 with a .282 ISO and .938 OPS. He could be in the lineup for his defense, but with the way Leury Garcia hit the ball yesterday, he’ll likely be in there on Monday instead. This is a really good team to stack today overall, though, and not a bad idea to knock down exposure to Jose Abreu for contrarian purposes given his soft(er) side vs RHP and high expected ownership.
The Dodgers currently have the #2 run total on the slate against Wood (4.19 runs). This year, Wood’s faced the Dodgers three times, giving up at least 2 ER in each outing with 7+ Ks as well. We know they’ll hit the ball, and their BvP data is as attractive as it gets here. We can easily go after Mookie Betts, Chris Taylor, AJ Pollock, Trea Turner and Justin Turner here for heavy exposure. They all have wOBAs against Wood over .400 and elite ISO numbers, too. Pretty chalky overall, but exposure to this group feels like a necessity.
These are easily the top stacks we need to have exposure to today, with the TB/BOS tilt being wise for some strategic exposure as well depending on who starts on each respective side. For TB, I’m looking at Brandon Lowe, Randy Arozarena, Wander Franco and Nelson Cruz as primary pieces. For the Red Sox, assuming they’re facing a RHP, I’m all about Rafael Devers and Kyle Schwarber with how well they’re swinging the bats (near 30% barrel rates in their last week of work). Alex Verdugo and Enrique Hernandez are locked in, and Xander Bogaerts/JD Martinez are always dangerous.
ONE-OFF HITTING PLAYS
- Jose Altuve – he’s been an OBP monster lately, getting on multiple times in each of the first 3 games of this series. With Rodon not expected to go more than 5 innings most likely, he should have a nice time against the CHW bullpen, too.
- Kyle Tucker – if the Astros are smart, they’ll start Tucker even vs LHP. He’s in tough vs Rodon early on, but has HR in 4 of his last 5 games and hits LHP very well (144 wRC+), with a higher ISO in the split (.292 vs .246). Own% will take a hit bc of the LvL matchup, but don’t let that shy you away.
- Austin Riley – the power is as legit as it gets, and he’ll likely hit in the 4 hole again here. He’s a great boom/bust option in a really tough matchup.
- Jorge Soler – same situation as Riley. Tough matchup, but should leadoff and has elite power for a boom/bust GPP option.
OCT 11 MAIN SLATE MLB DFS CHEAT SHEET
$ Tier P C 1B 2B 3B SS OF High Max Scherzer (9.6k / 25.54) (9.9k / 45.51) (51 / 25.54) Yasmani Grandal (4.3k / 9.51) (2.7k / 12.40) (16 / 7.86) Freddie Freeman (4.7k / 9.98) (3.8k / 13.02) (18 / 8.25) Jose Altuve (4.7k / 11.30) (4.1k / 14.73) (20 / 9.34) Justin Turner (4.8k / 10.03) (3.2k / 13.08) (16 / 8.29) Xander Bogaerts (4.9k / 12.27) (4k / 15.99) (20 / 10.14) Mookie Betts (5.1k / 11.16) (3.8k / 14.55) (19 / 9.23) Will Smith (4.4k / 5.47) (3k / 7.14) (14 / 4.53) Kyle Schwarber (4.9k / 11.44) (3.4k / 14.92) (19 / 9.46) Trea Turner (5.3k / 11.66) (4k / 15.20) (25 / 9.64) Rafael Devers (5.2k / 12.82) (4.1k / 16.71) (19 / 10.60) Corey Seager (5k / 10.91) (3.7k / 14.22) (23 / 9.02) J.D. Martinez (5k / 8.27) (2.6k / 10.79) (18 / 6.84) Luis Robert (4.8k / 10.39) (3.7k / 13.55) (24 / 8.59) Randy Arozarena (4.7k / 12.17) (3.9k / 15.87) (23 / 10.06) Medium Freddy Peralta (8.2k / 13.53) (9.2k / 24.11) (45 / 13.53) Mike Zunino (3.9k / 5.84) (3.1k / 7.62) (16 / 4.83) Yulieski Gurriel (3.8k / 6.90) (3k / 8.99) (12 / 5.70) Brandon Lowe (4.5k / 11.46) (3.6k / 14.95) (20 / 9.48) Austin Riley (4.2k / 9.28) (3.7k / 12.10) (18 / 7.67) Wander Franco (4.6k / 11.75) (3.7k / 15.31) (19 / 9.71) Kyle Tucker (4k / 6.52) (3.7k / 8.51) (22 / 5.39) Enrique Hernandez (4.4k / 10.34) (3.1k / 13.48) (19 / 8.55) Chris Taylor (4.1k / 8.35) (3.3k / 10.89) (8 / 6.90) A.J. Pollock (4.3k / 7.03) (2.8k / 9.17) (22 / 5.81) Nelson Cruz (4.1k / 10.61) (3.4k / 13.84) (14 / 8.78) Low Gavin Sheets (3.2k / 4.49) (2.4k / 5.85) (14 / 3.71) Leury Garcia (3k / 4.66) (2.2k / 6.08) (14 / 3.85) Yoan Moncada (3.8k / 8.97) (2.8k / 11.69) (16 / 7.41) Alex Verdugo (3.6k / 8.43) (3.2k / 11.00) (14 / 6.97) Rowdy Tellez (2.9k / 5.61) (2.4k / 7.32) (12 / 4.64) Eloy Jimenez (3.7k / 7.19) (3k / 9.37) (10 / 5.95) Jorge Soler (3.8k / 8.46) (3.4k / 11.03) (17 / 6.99)