DFS Analysis of UFC Fight Night 194: Dern vs Rodriguez (October 9, 2021)

Top DFS Plays for UFC Fight Night 194: Dern vs Rodriguez (10/9/21)


The UFC returns to Las Vegas for more MMA action from the UFC’s Apex Facility. Our analysis will take a deeper look at some of my favorite plays for DFS contests on Saturday.

 

Fighter to Build Your Lineups Around

ALEXANDER ROMANOV (DK $9,200 / FD $23) – Romanov may be a bit obvious in this spot, but with only 9 fights to pick from, the obvious is a good place to start. Romanov is a perfect 14-0 as a professional and has won his first 3 fights in the UFC. Two of those wins were by submission and with two finishes in his UFC career, he carries an average of 101.74 FPPF (DraftKings scoring). His opponent, Jared Vanderaa, is 1-1 in the UFC. Vanderaa is a decent striker but will be in a lot of trouble if this fight goes to the ground where Romanov’s submission game is high-level. Romanov has 8 career submissions to go along with his 5 wins by KO/TKO for a total of 13 finishes in 14 professional fights.

(At the time of this writing, Alexander Romanov is -625 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 82.65 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

 

Fighter with the Best Value

MATHEUS NICOLAU (DK $8,500 / FD $17) – Nicolau has a professional record of 16-2-1 with 4 wins by KO/TKO and 5 wins by submission to his credit. He has lost just once since 2012 and has a UFC record of 4-1. He faces Tim Elliott who has an overall record of 17-11-1 but in the UFC his record stands at just 6-9. Nicolau is a nearly 2 to 1 favorite on Saturday, and in victory, he is averaging 86.9 FPPF. At a price just $400 over the average on DraftKings and just $1 over the average on Fanduel, Nicolau is positioned well to bring good value to his price tag in this contest.

(At the time of this writing, Matheus Nicolau is -192 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 70.42 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

 

Fighter with the Best Upset Potential

CHARLES ROSA (DK $7,800 / FD $14) – In Rosa’s last 3 fights as an underdog, he is 2-1 and has an average of over 80 FPPF in those two wins. He has a career record of 14-5 and has been finished just once in those 19 fights (he lost by TKO in the final round of that fight). Rosa’s ability to hang in there with any fighter gives him a high floor and his history of winning as the betting underdog gives him a good ceiling for a fighter priced well below the average on both platforms. He faces Damon Jackson who is 1-2-1 with 1 no contest in the UFC and lost his last fight by first-round KO in December of last year.

(At the time of this writing, Charles Rosa is +156 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 47.81 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

 

That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!

About Rob

Since getting out of the casino business, Rob has been playing DFS regularly with a focus on MMA and the NFL. He now lives in Denver, CO.

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