FantasyCruncher NFL Elo Ratings – Week 5 (10/10/21)

NFL DFS: FantasyCruncher NFL Elo Ratings – Week 5 (10/5/21)


The Elo rating system is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games, originating with the game of chess and modified to fit numerous game types. One unique way to apply the Elo rating system in Daily Fantasy Sports is to compare player performance against the Draftkings pricing algorithm in a zero-sum fashion. In tournaments and cash games, establishing an expected points output from each player in your lineup is standard practice nowadays, and applying the Elo rating system is pretty simple with that expectation established. The player either met your expectation or did not live up to the desired output. The Elo rating calculation is simple, the players gain and lose ratings based on meeting expectations or not. The margin in which they exceed or fail is also an essential factor. If a player exceeds expectations by 20 points, it impacts the rating, and the opposite is true. Each week I’ll be simulating the Draftkings Classic Main Slate 1000 times and sharing the results here with you.


Elo Ratings-

What are they?

To be competitive in top-heavy NFL DFS tournaments requires great performances from every player in your lineup. The Elo ratings help you identify players who have the best chance to exceed expectations relative to salary and position. For each position, the target fantasy point expectation is derived by average points/ 1k, plus a constant. For example: QB points expectation would be (salary/1k)*3 + 11.2

How does it work?
Each player starts with an equal rating of 1,500. As the simulation progresses, the players gain or lose rating points based on how many fantasy points they score at each iteration.  If a player scored 24 fantasy points and his target score was 20, his Elo rating will increase based on meeting the target and by the margin of victory +4. That rating follows the player until all 1,000 iterations of the sim are completed. Below are the final Elo Ratings after the simulation has been completed.
Legend:
Position- The Players DraftKings Position
Salary- The Players DraftKings Salary ( Main Slate )
FC ELO- Fantasy Cruncher Elo Rating
Points Expectation- Target score based on salary and position ( GPP )

Name Team Position Salary FC ELO Points Expectation
James Robinson JAX RB 6000 1404.706 24.48943
Alvin Kamara NO RB 8600 1350.176 29.90152
Brandin Cooks HOU WR 6100 1349.767 26.7435
Davante Adams GB WR 8200 1349.308 31.81914
Najee Harris PIT RB 6900 1332.364 26.36285
Christian McCaffrey CAR RB 8700 1320.608 30.10967
Derrick Henry TEN RB 9000 1319.583 30.73415
Leonard Fournette TB RB 5200 1317.803 22.82417
D’Andre Swift DET RB 6100 1310.894 24.69759
Joe Mixon CIN RB 6200 1303.916 24.90575
Jakobi Meyers NE WR 5600 1303.419 25.53502
George Kittle SF TE 5600 1297.177 24.59009
Dalvin Cook MIN RB 8400 1289.2 29.4852
Chris Godwin TB WR 6300 1288.493 27.2269
Damien Williams CHI RB 5600 1285.784 23.6568
Deebo Samuel SF WR 7100 1282.767 29.16047
Aaron Jones GB RB 7900 1268.98 28.44442
Justin Jefferson MIN WR 7700 1266.485 30.61065
CeeDee Lamb DAL WR 6200 1261.186 26.9852
A.J. Brown TEN WR 6500 1260.265 27.71029
Kyler Murray ARI QB 8000 1259.171 37.62667
Ezekiel Elliott DAL RB 7000 1253.979 26.571
Amari Cooper DAL WR 6100 1252.766 26.7435
Nick Chubb CLE RB 6700 1243.608 25.94653
Damien Harris NE RB 5500 1243.256 23.44864
A.J. Green ARI WR 5100 1238.598 24.32654
Tim Patrick DEN WR 4700 1231.401 23.35975
Tee Higgins CIN WR 5000 1231.283 24.08484
Ja’Marr Chase CIN WR 5800 1229.674 26.01841
Antonio Brown TB WR 5200 1227.3 24.56823
Jaylen Waddle MIA WR 4800 1225.765 23.60145
Keenan Allen LAC WR 6500 1216.817 27.71029
Diontae Johnson PIT WR 6500 1213.412 27.71029
Sterling Shepard NYG WR 5300 1203.181 24.80993
Austin Ekeler LAC RB 7600 1202.508 27.81995
Saquon Barkley NYG RB 7300 1202.234 27.19547
Laviska Shenault Jr. JAX WR 4800 1198.259 23.60145
D.J. Moore CAR WR 7500 1196.506 30.12726
DeAndre Hopkins ARI WR 7600 1193.853 30.36896
Chase Edmonds ARI RB 5900 1190.187 24.28127
Josh Jacobs LV RB 5900 1180.13 24.28127
Tyler Boyd CIN WR 5300 1180.091 24.80993
Robby Anderson CAR WR 5000 1176.665 24.08484
Antonio Gibson WAS RB 6400 1176.034 25.32206
Nelson Agholor NE WR 4400 1173.141 22.63466
Randall Cobb GB WR 4000 1172.535 21.66787
Darren Waller LV TE 7300 1170.958 28.41209
K.J. Osborn MIN WR 3800 1170.316 21.18448
Allen Robinson CHI WR 5500 1166.936 25.29332
Curtis Samuel WAS WR 3000 1166.72 19.2509
Courtland Sutton DEN WR 5500 1165.932 25.29332
Mike Williams LAC WR 7200 1164.473 29.40217
JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT WR 5000 1164.14 24.08484
Dak Prescott DAL QB 6900 1162.515 34.103
Bryan Edwards LV WR 3800 1161.071 21.18448
Terry McLaurin WAS WR 7400 1157.88 29.88556
Mike Evans TB WR 6800 1153.811 28.43538
T.J. Hockenson DET TE 5500 1152.155 24.36527
Henry Ruggs III LV WR 5600 1150.618 25.53502
Derek Carr LV QB 6100 1150.085 31.54033
Austin Hooper CLE TE 3200 1149.871 19.19434
Mac Jones NE QB 5300 1149.715 28.97767
Jared Cook LAC TE 3600 1146.906 20.09363
Chase Claypool PIT WR 6000 1146.714 26.50181
Deonte Harris NO WR 4100 1145.568 21.90957
Kenny Golladay NYG WR 5900 1141.069 26.26011
Allen Lazard GB WR 3700 1140.415 20.94278
Cameron Brate TB TE 3300 1139.566 19.41916
Trey Sermon SF RB 5000 1139.503 22.40786
Adam Thielen MIN WR 6600 1138.816 27.95199
Tavon Austin JAX WR 3000 1136.567 19.2509
Quintez Cephus DET WR 4300 1134.756 22.39296
C.J. Uzomah CIN TE 3000 1134.085 18.74469
Kareem Hunt CLE RB 5800 1131.396 24.07312
Justin Herbert LAC QB 6800 1129.989 33.78267
Myles Gaskin MIA RB 5100 1129.799 22.61602
Taylor Heinicke WAS QB 5900 1127.484 30.89967
Marvin Jones JAX WR 5700 1122.122 25.77672
DeVante Parker MIA WR 5400 1116.712 25.05163
Maxx Williams ARI TE 3400 1112.203 19.64399
AJ Dillon GB RB 4500 1109.949 21.36707
Daniel Jones NYG QB 6000 1107.471 31.22
Eli Mitchell SF RB 5200 1106.247 22.82417
DeVonta Smith PHI WR 5900 1105.456 26.26011
Kalif Raymond DET WR 4800 1105.258 23.60145
Jacoby Brissett MIA QB 5200 1105.104 28.65733
Hunter Renfrow LV WR 4900 1103.437 23.84314
Mike Gesicki MIA TE 4200 1102.226 21.44257
Anthony Firkser TEN TE 3100 1101.793 18.96952
Alexander Mattison MIN RB 5500 1100.789 23.44864
Jalen Hurts PHI QB 7000 1100.396 34.42333
Ryan Tannehill TEN QB 6400 1100.223 32.50133
Joe Burrow CIN QB 6100 1096.099 31.54033
Ricky Seals-Jones WAS TE 2500 1093.663 17.62058
Kendrick Bourne NE WR 4000 1092.788 21.66787
Jonnu Smith NE TE 3300 1092.597 19.41916
O.J. Howard TB TE 2900 1089.858 18.51987
Justin Fields CHI QB 5200 1089.086 28.65733
Robert Tonyan GB TE 4300 1088.927 21.66739
Kirk Cousins MIN QB 6500 1085.373 32.82167
Melvin Gordon DEN RB 5300 1084.535 23.03233
Noah Fant DEN TE 4900 1083.876 23.01633
Darnell Mooney CHI WR 4700 1083.135 23.35975
Marquez Callaway NO WR 4700 1082.865 23.35975
Jameis Winston NO QB 5600 1081.953 29.93867
Rashard Higgins CLE WR 4300 1074.025 22.39296
Jared Goff DET QB 5300 1070.433 28.97767
Aaron Rodgers GB QB 7100 1069.806 34.74367
Danny Amendola HOU WR 3200 1069.594 19.7343
Sam Darnold CAR QB 6600 1065.306 33.142
Julio Jones TEN WR 6700 1063.184 28.19368
Adam Humphries WAS WR 3300 1062.657 19.97599
Evan Engram NYG TE 3200 1059.679 19.19434
Albert Okwuegbunam DEN TE 2500 1056.681 17.62058
Dalton Schultz DAL TE 4400 1055.654 21.89222
Teddy Bridgewater DEN QB 5400 1051.358 29.298
Javonte Williams DEN RB 4900 1050.817 22.1997
Tony Pollard DAL RB 5600 1050.062 23.6568
Tom Brady TB QB 7400 1049.016 35.70467
Kenyan Drake LV RB 4900 1046.151 22.1997
Miles Sanders PHI RB 5700 1045.81 23.86496
Jimmy Garoppolo SF QB 5500 1044.864 29.61833
Odell Beckham Jr. CLE WR 6000 1044.533 26.50181
Davis Mills HOU QB 4800 1044.329 27.376
Cole Kmet CHI TE 2700 1036.772 18.07022
Jamaal Williams DET RB 5200 1034.124 22.82417
Trevor Lawrence JAX QB 5800 1032.949 30.57933
Baker Mayfield CLE QB 5500 1031.652 29.61833
Zach Ertz PHI TE 3400 1030.872 19.64399
Jordan Akins HOU TE 2500 1030.279 17.62058
Hunter Henry NE TE 3700 1029.566 20.31845
Christian Kirk ARI WR 4900 1029.347 23.84314
Donovan Peoples-Jones CLE WR 3000 1029.228 19.2509
Quez Watkins PHI WR 3600 1028.01 20.70108
Rondale Moore ARI WR 4600 1021.552 23.11805
Mark Ingram II HOU RB 4300 1013.571 20.95076
David Johnson HOU RB 4500 1013.536 21.36707
Blake Jarwin DAL TE 3200 1010.245 19.19434
Dallas Goedert PHI TE 5100 1010.11 23.46598
Amon-Ra St. Brown DET WR 3500 1006.715 20.45939
Ben Roethlisberger PIT QB 5300 1003.86 28.97767
Kenneth Gainwell PHI RB 4900 999.9912 22.1997
Brandon Bolden NE RB 4000 998.5727 20.32629
Tyler Conklin MIN TE 3500 994.1604 19.86881
David Njoku CLE TE 2900 991.1445 18.51987
Jalen Reagor PHI WR 4200 989.8822 22.15126
Brandon Aiyuk SF WR 4500 988.7916 22.87636
Dwayne Washington NO RB 4000 988.7808 20.32629
Terrace Marshall Jr. CAR WR 3600 988.4392 20.70108
Marquise Goodwin CHI WR 3000 986.7417 19.2509
Cedrick Wilson DAL WR 4100 986.3953 21.90957
Jalen Guyton LAC WR 3500 981.5229 20.45939
Chris Conley HOU WR 3000 975.1758 19.2509
Albert Wilson MIA WR 3100 974.6222 19.4926
J.D. McKissic WAS RB 5000 972.1794 22.40786
Chester Rogers TEN WR 3900 968.5808 21.42617
Darius Slayton NYG WR 4100 966.3919 21.90957
Ronald Jones TB RB 4700 963.2492 21.78339
James Conner ARI RB 5600 963.055 23.6568
Pat Freiermuth PIT TE 2800 962.6604 18.29505
Adam Trautman NO TE 2600 960.9414 17.8454
Eric Ebron PIT TE 2900 958.9101 18.51987
Ian Thomas CAR TE 2500 958.3968 17.62058
Dan Arnold JAX TE 2900 955.7409 18.51987
Damiere Byrd CHI WR 3000 953.6359 19.2509
Mohamed Sanu SF WR 3400 944.3175 20.21769
Kendall Hinton DEN WR 3000 941.3394 19.2509
Malcolm Brown MIA RB 4000 938.4878 20.32629
Khalil Herbert CHI RB 4000 938.2737 20.32629
Kyle Juszczyk SF RB 4200 937.1362 20.7426
Jeremy McNichols TEN RB 5000 934.5576 22.40786
Chuba Hubbard CAR RB 6000 931.681 24.48943
Taysom Hill NO QB 5100 927.689 28.337

About Dustin Shook

Dustin is an experienced DFS player who has had success across multiple sports and platforms. Dustin is a GPP specialist focusing on game theory and data analytics. When he's not grinding daily fantasy sports contests, Dustin enjoys R programming and hanging out with his son. He can be found on twitter @dshook420

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