DraftKings & FanDuel NASCAR DFS – YellaWood 500 – October 3, 2021
As a beginning note on this content, I am not going to write it in a traditional “Core Play” sense. This slate has some outlier pricing and I think it is to be approached differently rather than a high-priced/low-priced play.
We head to the Superspeedway of Talladega this weekend for a race that is usually pretty high variance and we don’t have one dominant driver to really look towards. In fact, since 2018, there is no regular Cup driver who has an average finish better than 10th here. One driver who has seen some form of success is Joey Logano, who has led at least 10 laps in 10 of his last 11 races here. Logano’s last two results here have ended poorly – both in accidents, including his race back in April in which he finished way back in 39th. But Logano also had a stretch from 2017-2019 where he had four consecutive races with top-5 finishes and one of them being a victory. Logano has not had the best year, but if you reference his DraftKings price this week, as he sits at just $7,900.
New paragraph time – in fact, pricing on DraftKings this weekend is pretty wild, with Martin Truex, Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, and Kyle Larson all priced between $7,600-$8,400. Not far up is Chase Elliot at $8,800 who has not been cheaper than $10,200 over his last four races. DraftKings is clearly playing into the variance of a superspeedway race here, but the guys listed above and in the mid-pricing tier here all carry around 8:1 to 20:1 odds to win this race. Meaning, despite the low price, they really shouldn’t be priced this low. If you really wanted to, you could build an entire lineup around guys who are consistently priced well above where they are this week. But again, not one single driver in this field has an average finish better than 10th place over the last 4-5 races here at Talladega. While all the drivers in this tier aren’t exactly superspeedway specialists, I am ignoring most of that this week and just trying to get unique builds.
If you are looking specifically for a low-priced play, then Michael McDowell is my preferred this week at $6,100 as he finished third in the last running at Talladega – though again, a lot of variance and luck go into these runnings.
$ Tier D High Alex Bowman (10.2k / 41.04) (9k / 41.04) Kurt Busch (10k / 45.91) (6.5k / 45.91) Aric Almirola (9.2k / 46.86) (10.8k / 46.86) Medium Chase Elliott (8.8k / 44.97) (13.5k / 44.97) Kyle Larson (8.4k / 42.35) (11k / 42.35) Kyle Busch (8.2k / 43.66) (9.8k / 43.66) Joey Logano (7.9k / 48.97) (13k / 48.97) Kevin Harvick (7.8k / 44.22) (9.5k / 44.22) Martin Truex (7.6k / 38.86) (8.8k / 38.86) Low Erik Jones (6.5k / 29.76) (7.5k / 29.76) Michael McDowell (6.1k / 18.34) (6.3k / 18.34)