DFS Analysis of UFC Fight Night 193: Santos vs Walker (October 2, 2021)

Top DFS Plays for UFC Fight Night 193: Santos vs Walker (10/2/21)


The UFC returns to Las Vegas for more MMA action from the UFC’s Apex Facility. Our analysis will take a deeper look at some of my favorite plays for DFS contests on Saturday.

 

Fighter to Build Your Lineups Around

KAROL ROSA (DK $9,300 / FD $22) – Over the course of 3 UFC fights, Rosa has averaged 110.0 FPPF (DraftKings scoring) giving her the second-highest average of all fighters on Saturday. She has been the model of consistency with scores of 111.52 FP, 109.90 FP, and 108.59 FP. She is riding a 5 fight win streak coming into her fight with Bethe Correia. Over her last 8 fights, Correia is a disappointing 2-5-1. With just 2 wins since 2014, Correia is in big trouble against Rosa who has averaged more than 70 strikes thrown per round in the UFC. Rosa also lands at 38.7 significant strikes per round giving her the highest totals of both strikes thrown and significant strikes landed for all fighters of this event.

(At the time of this writing, Karol Rosa is -585 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 78.45 on Fantasy Cruncher.) 

 

Fighter with the Best Value

JOSEPH SOLECKI (DK $8,300 / FD $16) – Solecki is a perfect 3-0 since joining the UFC and is currently on a 6 fight win streak. In the UFC, Solecki is averaging 99.29 FPPF (DraftKings scoring). He will be facing Jared Gordon who is just 3-3 over his last 6 fights. Gordon is coming off of 2 wins, but those wins came at featherweight. This fight is being fought in the lightweight division where Gordon lost 3 of his last 4 fights at 155 lb. This fight is narrowly handicapped, but Solecki is the better-looking fighter who has been trending better as well. He is also in good shape to get a finish in this fight considering he has a strong submission game and Gordon has been finished in 3 of his last 4 fights as a lightweight.

(At the time of this writing, Joseph Solecki is -135 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 58.81 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

 

Fighter with the Best Upset Potential

MISHA CIRKUNOV (DK $7,600 / FD $14) – Cirkunov is a boom/bust play on Saturday. Over his last 7 fights, he is just 3-4 with all 7 fights coming to a finish in round number one. In fact, since the beginning of 2012, Cirkunov has not gone the distance in any fight. During that span, he is 10-5 with finishes for Cirkunov in each win and finishes for his opponent in each loss. He has recent losses to Ryan Spann and Johnny Walker, but his opponent on Saturday, Krzysztof Jotko, is in no way on the level of those fighters. Jotko is also 3-4 over his last 7 fights with each of his wins over that span coming by decision. Look for Cirkunov to start quickly again on Saturday and chase a finish. His ceiling is high in this one, and even as a betting underdog, his potential in this fight at a below-average salary makes him a great GPP play on Saturday.

(At the time of this writing, Misha Cirkunov is +122 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 49.68 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

 

That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!

About Rob

Since getting out of the casino business, Rob has been playing DFS regularly with a focus on MMA and the NFL. He now lives in Denver, CO.

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