MLB DFS: Breaking down the top daily fantasy baseball hitters and team stacks on FanDuel & DraftKings for October 1, 2021
Digging into today’s MLB DFS slate to highlight your best bats to stack.
This article will cover two to three teams that we think are the most stackable for MLB contests. If you are newer to DFS or MLB or want a general refresher on the impact of stacking in MLB, check out our research done this off-season, where we analyzed over 2,000,000 lineups to determine how many times a team of four or five hitters stacked from the same team won contests. In brief, 80.3% of winning lineups across 71 Main Slate tournaments (from 2020) had a stack of at least four players. 71.9% of that 80.3% had a stack of five players. Stacking is the main strategy to focus on when it comes to MLB. Therefore we will be approaching our hitter’s content from a stacking perspective.
Braves (vs. Mets)
Tylor Megill has had a decent season with a 4.78 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP, but the wheels have come off a little bit over the last two months as Megill had a 6.44 ERA in August and has a 7.20 ERA so far in September. Megill has only allowed less than three earned runs in three of his last ten starts and has allowed 14 hits and 10 earned runs over his last seven innings pitched. Whether a dip in trying due to being out of the race, or Megill’s first time putting this many miles on his arm, it seems his season is slipping near the end. On August 2nd, Megill had a 2.68 ERA, so in just nine starts it has ballooned to 4.78. Megill leans on his 4-seamer for 58% of his arsenal, though that pitch is also being slugged at a .515 clip. The changeup is being slugged at .538, so hard-hit balls are still an issue here. While Megill’s velocity and strikeout numbers are good, he ranks in the bottom 12% of the league in Barrel% and bottom 18% in HardHit%. Ultimately, it just seems like the gas tank is low here and with nothing to really play for for the Mets, the Braves big bats are a high ceiling option here. Lefties are the major damage dealer here, as lefties are hitting .325 and slugging .637 compared to .209 and .349 from righties. Load up on lefties here and let it rip.
Royals (vs Twins)
We have a slate with some pretty solid pitching options on it and while John Gant has had a pretty decent year, his numbers remain a bit deceiving. Gant is sporting a 3.74 ERA on the season and that number climbs slightly to 4.00 when we factor in just the time with the Twins. In his six starts (13 appearances) with the Twins, Gant has thrown 29.2 innings, allowing 23 hits, 13 walks, and 15 earned runs. This actually equates to a 1.23 WHIP, which is better than his WHIP of 1.57 with St. Louis. While a heavy spin rate on his fastball has actually played him in the top 20% of the MLB for Barrel%, he still ranks near the bottom of the league in Walk%, Velocity, Chase Rate, K%, and average exit velocity. While allowing hits hasn’t been the key issue for Gant, the walks remain a very big one. Also come lack of control comes mistake placement. So while, yes, in three September starts (only spanning 8.2 innings), Gant has only allowed one earned run, he has still allowed six hits and seven talks over those 8.2 innings. Dating back to August, Gant had a 6.00 ERA in that month, though pitching out of the pen for most of it. So ultimately, we may get a decent start from Gant, but he hasn’t pitched in a sixth-inning since June 17th. This gets us to a Minnesota bullpen with an ERA near four and a half. The Royals are never the sexiest play on the slate, but a talented array of starters going makes face John Gant a better pill to swallow.