DFS Analysis of UFC 266: Volkanovski vs Ortega (September 25, 2021)

Top DFS Plays for UFC 266: Volkanovski vs Ortega (9/25/21)


The UFC returns to Las Vegas for more MMA action from T-Mobile Arena. Our analysis will take a deeper look at some of my favorite plays for DFS contests on Saturday.

Fighter to Build Your Lineups Around

VALENTINA SHEVCHENKO (DK $9,500 / FD $23) – Shevchenko’s price is a limiting factor, but her ceiling is high enough to support her cost. She is the biggest favorite of not only this UFC event but of any all year. Shevchenko has lost just twice in the past 10 years – both to the GOAT, Amanda Nunes. She has won 7 straight coming into Saturday’s fight with Lauren Murphy and has averaged 115.9 FPPF (DraftKings scoring) over that span. Murphy is a very good striker, but Shevchenko is better. She wins this fight easily and will bring solid scoring to any DFS lineup.

(At the time of this writing, Valentina Shevchenko is -1515 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 107.96 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

Fighter with the Best Value

CHRIS DAUKAUS (DK $8,800 / FD $19) – On almost any other card, Daukaus would be priced much higher than he is on Saturday. He is better than a 2 to 1 favorite, and he has the 3rd best odds of all fighters in this event to score a finish. Yet he is 7th in salary on DraftKings and is tied for 7th in salary on Fanduel. Since joining the UFC, Daukaus has won his first three fights with each win coming inside the first round. He is averaging 124.2 FPPF (DraftKings scoring) over those three fights and at +110 to finish his opponent, Shamil Abdurakhimov, inside the distance, he is in good shape to put up another big number on Saturday.

(At the time of this writing, Chris Daukaus is -205 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 67.27 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

Fighter with the Best Upset Potential

ROXANNE MODAFFERI (DK $6,900 / FD $9) – Modafferi is 3-3 over her last six fights, but she has done this against high-quality opponents. Over that span, she has wins over Antonina Shevchenko, Maycee Barber, and Andrea Lee. Her losses over that span were to Jennifer Maia, Lauren Murphy, and Viviane Araujo. Simply put, Modafferi is a difficult out for any opponent. She has never been finished in the UFC and the last time she was finished by any opponent dates back to October of 2011. Win or lose she will add points to your lineup. At her salary, she doesn’t have to score much at all to bring value to her price tag, and despite being a heavy underdog against Taila Santos, I believe she is a live dog in this fight.

(At the time of this writing, Roxanne Modafferi is +322 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 39.24 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!

About Rob

Since getting out of the casino business, Rob has been playing DFS regularly with a focus on MMA and the NFL. He now lives in Denver, CO.

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