Top DFS Plays for UFC Fight Night 192: Smith vs Spann (9/18/21)
The UFC returns to Las Vegas for more MMA action from the Apex. Our analysis will take a deeper look at some of my favorite plays for DFS contests on Saturday.
Fighter to Build Your Lineups Around
MONTEL JACKSON (DK $9,500 / FD $22) – Jackson’s odds on this fight against JP Buys makes things pretty clear. He has the second best odds of any fighter to win on Saturday, and he has the best odds to get a finish at -150. He has a professional record of 10-2 and has finished his opponents in 7 of those fights. In his last fight, Jackson scored a TKO victory over Jesse Strader in 118 seconds. His salary (especially on DraftKings) is limiting, but with 5 finishes inside of 2 minutes, his ceiling is extremely high in this bout. Additionally, he averages 91.83 FPPF giving him the highest average of any fighter on Saturday with more than 2 UFC wins to his credit.
(At the time of this writing, Montel Jackson is -649 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 80.68 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
Fighter with the Best Value
RONG ZHU (DK $7,600 / FD $21) – When Dakota Bush was forced to withdraw from Saturday’s Fight Night due to a positive COVID-19 test, Zhu got a serious downgrade in opponent. He will now face Brandon Jenkins who makes his octagon debut with less than a week’s notice. His DraftKings’ salary was set prior to the change of opponent, allowing Zhu to have a well below-average price tag despite having the 4th best odds to win of all fighters on Saturday. His salary on Fanduel isn’t nearly as favorable, however, so his value is much better on DraftKings.
(At the time of this writing, Rong Zhu is -279 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 70.58 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
Fighter with the Best Upset Potential
PANNIE KIANZAD (DK $7,500 / FD $13) – Kianzad is one of the best strikers in the UFC’s bantamweight division, and she is currently on a 4 fight win streak. With an average of 28.5 significant strikes landed per round, only Tafon Nchukwi lands at a higher rate on this card. Her opponent, Raquel Pennington, throws more than 20 fewer strikes per round and lands more than 10 fewer per round. This fight is a -320 favorite to reach the judges’ scorecards on Saturday, likely giving Kianzad a full 15 minutes to accumulate strikes. I like Kianzad to upset Pennington here, and expect her to outstrike her opponent in each round earning her a decision win.
(At the time of this writing, Pannie Kianzad is +107 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 53.61 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!