DraftKings & FanDuel NASCAR DFS – Federated Auto Parts 400 – September 11, 2021
Brad Keselowski – DK: $9,300 | FD: $11,500 – Starting 7th
Richmond is a track where we have seen a lot of success from a handful of drivers. Martin Truex had two wins over his last six races here, while Kyle Busch also has two wins over the last six races. To tie up that six race stretch, the other two winners are Alex Bowman and Brad Keselowski. One year ago, Keselowski won this race while leading 192 laps with 44 of the fastest ones which led to a massive 120 fantasy point day for Kes. Back in April, Keselowski was looking strong in the first half of the race until some pit stop “issues” persay led the team to fall behind the field and inevitably finishing 14th. Over the last 12 races here, Keselowski has finished in the top ten, ten times and has led at least 25 laps in each of his last five races here. It has been an up and down year for the Penske driver, but we can take those struggles in stride as it also leads us to a price of just $9,300. Keselowski carries 10:1 odds to win this race, though there are three drivers priced above him with worse odds (just slightly better differential upside).
Erik Jones – DK: $6,600 | FD: $5,000 – Starting 31st
Erik Jones is a very talented race car driver. Erik Jones does not have very competitive race car equipment right now. With that said, Jones still carries an average finish of 20th on the year. I am a firm believer that the struggles for Jones on the year are based around him trying to over-compensate knowing the equipment he is running with RPM is worse than what he had with Joe Gibbs. That being said, if we remove his poor showing last week, Jones had averaged near 40 fantasy points per race over his last three races and carries a career 20th place finish at Richmond. Earlier this year, Jones started 30th and finished 19th. That is really all we want here as that should net us around 37 fantasy points off of the differential alone. This isn’t an exciting play, but Richmond can be a variable track at just 0.75-miles, so playing the differential game here is probably the best bet when applying that to our value play.
$ Tier D High Kyle Busch (11.5k / 74.80) (13k / 74.80) Chase Elliott (11.2k / 61.77) (10.5k / 61.77) Martin Truex (10.2k / 59.61) (14k / 59.61) Brad Keselowski (9.3k / 60.11) (11.5k / 60.11) Medium Alex Bowman (8.9k / 43.82) (9.7k / 43.82) Matt DiBenedetto (8.1k / 44.41) (7.8k / 44.41) Ross Chastain (7.2k / 28.48) (8.3k / 28.48) Low Ricky Stenhouse (6.7k / 32.03) (7k / 32.03) Erik Jones (6.6k / 36.04) (5k / 36.04) Chase Briscoe (6.5k / 29.39) (5.8k / 29.39) Bubba Wallace Jr (6.3k / 23.55) (6k / 23.55) Ryan Newman (6k / 25.19) (5.5k / 25.19)