DFS Analysis of UFC Fight Night 191: Brunson vs Till (September 4, 2021)

Top DFS Plays for UFC Fight Night 191: Brunson vs Till (9/4/21)


The UFC returns to Las Vegas for more MMA action from the Apex. Our analysis will take a deeper look at some of my favorite plays for DFS contests on Saturday.

 

Fighter to Build Your Lineups Around

TOM ASPINALL (DK $9,000 / FD $22) – In three UFC fights to date, Aspinall is 3-0 with a finish in each fight. Only Andrei Arlovski has been able to extend a fight with Aspinall beyond the first round. In that fight, he submitted Arlovski at 1:09 in the second. He averages 108.8 FPPF (DraftKings scoring) and he is a -140 favorite to finish his opponent, Serghei Spivac, inside the distance. He is the second biggest favorite of all fighters on Saturday. Spivac is 4-2 in the UFC, but in those 4 victories has only once defeated a fighter his height or taller. Both of his losses came against fighters who stood 6’3″ or taller. Aspinall stands at 6’3″. With just 10 fights to choose from, putting Aspinall in your lineups is a great place to begin.

(At the time of this writing, Tom Aspinall is -242 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 70.51 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

 

Fighter with the Best Value

PADDY PIMBLETT (DK $8,300 / FD $18) – Pimblett’s price on DraftKings makes him a very good value on that platform. His price on Fanduel isn’t quite as good, but his value overall is high for a 10-fight slate. His professional record stands at 16-3 with 5 wins by KO/TKO, 7 wins by submission, and 4 wins by decision. His 75% finishing rate in victory establishes him as a fighter with the potential to score a finish every time he competes. He is capable of getting finishes with strikes as well as submissions. His opponent, Luigi Vendramini, is just 1-3 in the UFC and will be the underdog in this bout. With Pimlett’s moderate salary and high finishing rate along with being the betting favorite, he should bring a lot of value to his price tag on Saturday.

(At the time of this writing, Paddy Pimblett is -155 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 61.58 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

 

Fighter with the Best Upset Potential

KHALIL ROUNTREE (DK $7,700 / FD $13) – Rountree has a puncher’s chance to win this fight. In 8 career wins, he has won 5 by KO/TKO. He is 4-3 with 1 no contest over his last 8 fights. During that span he has 3 first round finishes. Meanwhile, his opponent, Modestas Bukauskas, is just 1-2 since joining the UFC losing 2 straight coming into this fight. In a slate with few fights to choose from, Rountree is an underdog with the capability to knock out his opponent. His chances of winning this fight aren’t as great as one might hope, but if he can get his shot in his ceiling is high at a salary that is well below average.

(At the time of this writing, Khalil Rountree is +132 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 49.27 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

About Rob

Since getting out of the casino business, Rob has been playing DFS regularly with a focus on MMA and the NFL. He now lives in Denver, CO.

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