DFS Analysis of UFC on ESPN 30: Barboza vs Chikadze (August 28, 2021)

Top DFS Plays for UFC on ESPN 30: Barboza vs Chikadze (8/28/21)


The UFC returns to Las Vegas for more MMA action from the Apex. Our analysis will take a deeper look at some of my favorite plays for DFS contests on Saturday.

 

Fighter to Build Your Lineups Around

ANDRE PETROSKI (DK $9,200 / FD $22) – Eight different fighters are making their UFC debut on Saturday including both Petroski and his opponent, Micheal Gillmore. Petroski is ready for the UFC after beginning his professional career with a record of 5-1 with finishes in each of his victories. With 3 first-round finished and 2 second-round finishes in those wins, Petroski comes out quickly and goes for the kill. Current odds make him a -230 favorite to get another finish in this one. Meanwhile, Gillmore is also making his debut, but the forecast for him is not so sunny. He has a record of 6-3 with each of his losses coming via submission. Look for Petroski to apply pressure with his stand-up while his finish is most likely going to come on the ground where he has 2 submission wins already in his brief career.

(At the time of this writing, Andre Petroski is -556 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 79.42 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

 

Fighter with the Best Value

JAMALL EMMERS (DK $8,300 / FD $17) – Emmers’ record in the UFC may be unimpressive at 1-1, but he has faced tough opponents outside of the UFC and proven himself against high-level competition. Over the past 6 years, he has only lost 3 times – all to established UFC fighters including Thiago Moises, Julian Erosa, and Giga Chikadze (a split decision loss in his UFC debut and his only loss with the promotion). He also has wins over UFC veterans, Alexander Hernandez and Cory Sandhagen before joining the UFC. He now faces Pat Sabatini who is 1-0 in the UFC with his sole fight with the promotion being a decision victory over Tristan Connelly (UFC record 1-1). Emmers is just too much fighter for Sabatini in this one, and with a score of 108.61 FP (DraftKings scoring) in his last fight, he has proven his ability to score well. With a salary just above the average on both DFS platforms, Emmers is a great candidate to bring some big value to his price tag on Saturday.

(At the time of this writing, Jamall Emmers is -149 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 62.43 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

 

Fighter with the Best Upset Potential

DANIEL RODRIGUEZ (DK $7,700 / FD $15) – Rodriguez is a welterweight with a UFC record of 5-1 in just 18 months with the promotion. He lost a narrow decision to Nicolas Dalby in his only loss, and he has a 60% finish rate in victory with 3 finishes inside the octagon. He will fight Kevin Lee who will be stepping up to the welterweight division after having fought 16 of his 17 UFC fights in the lightweight division. In his only previous welterweight fight, he was submitted by Rafael Dos Anjos. He is just 2-4 over his last 6 fights. Perhaps he is hopeful that he can bring more power into the octagon at 170 lb. and that prompted his step up in weight class. In this fight, however, he is stepping up to fight a rising star in the welterweight division. Rodriguez is not only a good pick to get an upset in this fight, but with an average of 94.0 FPPF, he has the potential to put up a big fantasy score as well.

(At the time of this writing, Daniel Rodriguez is +123 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 52.16 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

 

That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!

About Rob

Since getting out of the casino business, Rob has been playing DFS regularly with a focus on MMA and the NFL. He now lives in Denver, CO.

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