DraftKings Tennis DFS Core Plays & Cheat Sheet – August 25, 2021 (8/25/21)
Pablo Carreno-Busta: $9,400 (vs. Koepfer)
Carreno-Busta did drop a second set on Tuesday to Kwon which killed some fantasy upside, but overall it was just another win in the books for one of the hotter players on tour. Carreno-Busta has now won 12 of his last 14 matches, including a title in Hamburg at the German Open. While I do not like to put increased weight on head-to-head history, in the case of Carreno-Busta against Dominik Koepfer I feel it is a little bit of a different story as we have recent head-to-head data to go off of. Carreno-Busta is a career 3-0 here against Koepfer, with all wins coming on Hard Courts, two of them coming this year, and all of the wins in straight sets. There is a large Elo advantage for Carreno-Busta here on hard courts, as well as the odds of being a -350 favorite. Seeing as Koepfer has never taken a set here, I find it hard to see a path where he manages to take two. Koepfer also had a claw his way to this spot as he barely snuck by Cecchinato in three sets, in which Koepfer lost 15 games and had nine double-faults. Given the form of Carreno-Busta and the past head-to-head success, there is nothing that has changed for either side here for me to not feel safe with a Busta win here.
Jan-Lennard Struff: $6,100 (vs. Ivashka)
Targeting Jan-Lennard Struff has been a recipe for disaster in my DFS days as he has proven himself as a very streaky and unpredictable guy to roster. In fact, leading into this tournament, the form was actually pretty poor, losing seven of his previous nine matches. However, in Struff’s opening match here against Gianluca Mager, Struff needed just 59 minutes to dispose of Mager with a 6-2, 6-2 victory. His opponent here, Ilya Ivashka got by Seppi easily, but faced a long match against Cilic on Tuesday in which he managed to win being down a set and a break. When it comes to the total on-court time, Struff has only played 59 minutes, while Ivashka has played four hours and 22 minutes over his last two days. Ivashka has had a very solid year, with a 31-16 overall record and an 8-5 hard court record, but he is running into a version of Struff that looked dominant in his one match. I also give a lot of edge to Struff in conditioning here as he should enter this fresher. These two have also met twice over the last two years, with Struff taking both matches in straight sets. In 2021, Struff won 6-4, 6-1 on clay, and in 2020 Struff won 6-4, 6-4 on indoor hard courts. Everything I have said prior isn’t even scratching the surface of the actual reason why Struff is a great play today, and that is simply pricing. Ivashka is priced at $9,100 and Struff at $6,100. While there is a small chance that Ivashka opens this match as a favorite, it will not be large enough to justify a $3,000 gap between these two players. This is another classic pricing mishap by DraftKings as they released salaries without the betting markets available yet. Do not be surprised at all to see Struff as the favorite when betting odds are released for this match. Pushing salary aside, I still like Struff in this match due to recent head-to-head and the amount of Tennis each has had to play over the last two days.
$ Tier P High Katerina Siniakova (11k / 77.33) Pablo Carreno-Busta (9.4k / 70.83) Emil Ruusuvuori (9.3k / 54.77) Anett Kontaveit (9.2k / 54.95) Medium Mikael Ymer (8.9k / 64.95) Alize Cornet (8.5k / 56.27) Tereza Martincova (7.2k / 52.52) Low Jan-Lennard Struff (6.1k / 49.91) Benoit Paire (5.7k / 35.41)