DraftKings & FanDuel NASCAR DFS – FireKeepers Casino 400 – August 22, 2021
Kevin Harvick – DK: $10,000 | FD: $12,0000 – Starting 8th
You can write a lot of narratives on Harvick this year to basically make him sound either good or bad. Harvick hasn’t had as many top-fives this year as past, yet Harvick is still consistently grabbing top-tens. Harvick isn’t leading a lot of laps this year, Harvick isn’t doing this, or doing that, etc. But Harvick is still a generational talent who has had some tough team luck and despite the perceived poor results, Harvick has still netted us strong average fantasy points per race on the year. If we remove some of the road course races from the race log, we also get a different picture altogether. But what really makes Harvick stand out from the field is his career success here at Michigan. Harvick has 40 career races at Michigan and has five career wins, seven career second-place finishes, and an average finish of 11th. But the important context here is Harvick has won the last three races here at Michigan, including sweeping the double-header last year in 2020. Over those two races, Harvick led 90 and 92 laps, taking the checkered flag from the third position and the 20th position. This may be my last ride with Harvick on the year, as while he hasn’t been as bad as some people may think, he still has had a down year and there is no way to really disguise that. If Harvick can’t get right at what is arguably his best career track, then it may be time to retire this pick. With the 8th starting spot, we still have some room for differential and we are closer to the front to grab some led laps.
Daniel Suarez – DK: $7,800 | FD: $6,000 – Starting 30th
Suarez has had a few rough races recently, but he also isn’t really known as a top-tier road course racer. Getting back on an oval for Suarez will be a boost here, and Suarez has had a strong season with Trackhouse Racing. I am basically throwing out the last year of data with Suarez as his team and equipment just weren’t cutting it in general. While Suarez is likely out of the playoff picture, that doesn’t mean he is out of our DFS picture, especially grabbing a 30th place starting spot. Back in 2019 as a member of Stewart-Haas, Suarez had back-to-back top-five finishes at Michigan and has an average finish of 20th at this track, which includes two finishes 30th and worse back in 2017. Suarez has seven top-20 finishes over his last 13 races and this will be just the second time he has a starting position of 30th or higher in his last 24 races. We are looking to just grab around 10-15 spots of differential here for the savings to work.
$ Tier D High Kyle Larson (11.5k / 52.66) (14.5k / 52.66) William Byron (10.2k / 55.08) (11k / 55.08) Kevin Harvick (10k / 59.67) (12k / 59.67) Brad Keselowski (9.8k / 59.60) (10.3k / 59.60) Chase Elliott (9.2k / 48.61) (12.5k / 48.61) Medium Alex Bowman (8.8k / 38.99) (10k / 38.99) Christopher Bell (8.1k / 52.47) (9.2k / 52.47) Daniel Suarez (7.8k / 41.86) (6k / 41.86) Ryan Preece (7.5k / 26.77) (4.5k / 26.77) Tyler Reddick (7.4k / 34.43) (8.5k / 34.43) Low Bubba Wallace Jr (6.4k / 22.28) (6.5k / 22.28) Michael McDowell (6k / 15.19) (4k / 15.19) Corey Lajoie (5.6k / 0.00) (3.5k / 0.00)
(Josh Berry is now starting for Lajoie and can replace him on this cheat sheet)