The 2021 Northern Trust: The Primer – PGA DFS Analysis

Featuring in-depth analysis of The 2021 Northern Trust! Daily fantasy golf analysis for this week’s DFS slate to help you build winning cash game and tournament lineups on DraftKings.

Welcome to The Primer column for The 2021 Northern Trust!  We are here to help you build your DFS lineups for FanDuel, DraftKings or whatever other sites you choose to play on (this article does have a DraftKings bias though).

In case you missed it – you can find my cheat sheet posted for The 2021 Northern Trust here!

A stark contrast to a week ago at the Wyndham, this week – the tour has a pretty strong field teeing it up at The 2021 Northern Trust, which should make for a fun week of DFS action on DraftKings and FanDuel.  The players tee it up at Liberty National, which sits at over 7400 yards for the Par 71 track and we’ll be looking for elite ball strikers here, players that can gain strokes vs. the field both from the tee blocks and with their approach shots in addition to recent form and course history.  Last year saw a start studded leaderboard near the top, something that I think will play out this year again as the best in the field usually rise to the top at The Northern Trust year after year.  So with that said, let’s have a look at five of my favorite plays on the board to consider adding into your player pool for this week’s action!

The Best of the best…

  • Rory McIlroy, $10,000

He’s had strong showings here in the past, comes into this one playing rock solid golf, and without having a tournament where he’s popped for a win, I could see him flying under the radar more than he should for this one at this price point.  He’s a great ball striker, coming into this one ranked 5th on tour in SG: OTT, 19th in SG: APP and when you combine those two metrics – he sits 8th on tour in SG: TTG and 12th in SG: Total.  Don’t expect rock bottom ownership levels here (I’d expect him to be in the 10-15% owned range in large field GPP’s) but I do think he’ll be lower owned than he should be for the 2021 Northern Trust.

The Next Group

  • Paul Casey, $8,700

An elite ball striker who has been playing outstanding golf, Casey comes into this one ranked 2nd on tour in SG: APP and 9th in SG: TTG.  The price point on him is very reasonable and I love the course for his game.  I think he’ll be very popular this week at this price point, but I think that this is a case of eating some good chalk.  He has two straight top 5 finishes and 3 top 10 finishes in his last five showings.  He hasn’t teed it up here recently, but I do think that the course is a great fit for his game and like his chances of being in the mix this weekend.

  • Ian Poulter, $7,700

His game isn’t consistent with the other options that I like this week in that he is not an elite ball striker, but his short game is elite – and he has played great here historically with two top 10 finishes in his last three outings at The Northern Trust.  He comes into this one with his game on point, and like his chances of continuing to play well at Liberty National this week.

  • Russell Henley, $7,600

I’ve touted Henley often this year, so it shouldn’t be shocking to see him here at $7,600 fresh off of a 7th place finish at The Wyndham Championship last week.  He ranks 5th on tour in SG: APP this season and 20th in SG: TTG.  All key metrics are above average for him and when you layer that in with elite approach shots, there’s a lot to like for a $7,600 golfer this week.  His course history is pretty poor, but I think he’s got a pretty good chance of righting the ship here at Liberty if he plays as well as he has for the vast majority of the 2020-21 PGA season.

Don’t Forget About…

  • Alex Noren, $6,900

Too cheap.  Much like with Poulter, he isn’t an elite ball striker – but with an elite short game and a sub $7k price point, I like the spot for him this week.  He’s been pretty solid all season long, outside of The Open – and comes into this one fresh off of a 16th place showing at the Olympics.  There’s risk here, as is always the case with anyone sub $7k – but if you find yourself looking for someone to get significant exposure to that does check in under $7,000 – Noren is my favorite on the board this week!

Categorized as GOLF

By Brad

Brad hates the term fantasy sports expert, so instead he is someone who specializes in NFL, NHL and MLB DFS notes and analysis. He had a 68.2% win rate in 2015 NFL cash games to go along with a 83.5% win rate for the 2014 season. For NHL he had a 58.7% win rate in the 2015-16 season for cash games and a 66.2% win rate for the 2014-15 season. You can follow him on Twitter @bradsgotmoxy.