League of Legends Esports LPL/LCK DFS picks and plays for the August 1, 2021 Main Slate
We have a slate tonight / tomorrow that has some tighter odds, which gives us a slate without an $8,000 or more priced ADC. LGD and OMG kick off the LPL action in a match that offers a lot to lose for OMG. OMG currently holds onto the final playoff spot with an 8-6 record, with LGD two games back at 6-8. LGD has been a frustrating team as they showed a lot of flashes early in the season with a few upsets, but have sputtered down the back stretch, only really succeeding when they get big mid lane carries from Xiye. On the other hand, OMG is a team that has kind of beaten up on the bottom recently, with wins over V5 and UP – and more noteably LNG and JDG. The JDG win was big as they were the threat to lose the playoff spot too, but now JDG finds themselves on a five match losing streak. LGD have lost six of their last seven matches and while it has been against tough competition, it also makes their early season beat ups of bad teams less impressive as the tiers have been established a bit more now. Despite a worse record, LGD is actually a small favorite here, which is good for us because it gives us a discount on OMG players – a team with better form and a lot to play for. I think this match goes three games, but getting savings on the team I percieve as better, is a win for us.
Team WE and IG are the second LPL match of the night and Team WE features the top of the pricing despite being just a -150 favorite. After a 2-0 sweep of TES, it really looked like IG was turning it around (albeit a bit too late) but then a 0-2 loss to BLG kind of remind us of the volatility of this team. As a whole, IG is 5-8 and 12-17 in games. If the games count feels low there it is because it is. Almost all series for IG this year have ended in a sweep, either winning or losing in just two games. While this can show the upside, it also shows the downside and how variable this team has been. Team WE on the other hand is riding a five game winning streak and now finds themselves as the the number four seed in the LPL. I have said this before but I will repeat it, we have kind of reached the point of the season where we know what we have from these teams. WE can dominate top lane and jungle, and Shanks has been slaying out of his mind recently. This is a very good team, who is in very good form. IG remains a tournament stack that you should only have a low percentage to, but paying the price for WE on this slate will be a little more difficult. That being said, no one has the sky high $8,000 pricing today.
In the LCK we have Damwon taking on KT Rolster and Nongshim taking on Hanwha Life. Damwon is coming off of a disappointint loss to Afreeca in which DWG dominated the first game, only to be dominated in the next two. It has been an interesting season for the Spring champs and the MSI runners up, as they have just an 8-6 record. They are not at risk of missing the playoffs, but will find themselves as a middle seed. Now, a lot will speak to maybe this team taking a step back and I do not see that to be the case, I believe it is just a sign of other teams taking a step forward. Nongshim, Liiv Sandbox, and Afreeca were all fringe “bad” teams last split or last season, but have put together some amazing runs this season. Maybe Damwon got a little complacent, but they are no longer just a plug and play automatic win of the past. That being said, despite the 8-6 record they do have a 21-14 games record, the +7 split there is better than two teams above them in Liiv Sandbox and T1 (+5). So really, what should this mean to us? It should mean that Damwon is always the prefered play, but grabbing teams against them are more in play than ever. Damwon still carries an 80% win probability against KT tonight who continue to mix and match their starters. With -395 odds, it is hard to move away from Damwon, who has only had one two-match losing streak all season. Showmaker continues to carry the load here, sitting second in the LCK for KDA. An honest knock on Damwon here is they don’t rank too high in CS/M or Gold/M, small things like this are likely why they mixed in Malrang earlier in the year – the long term consistency for Damwon will be a concern, but they are also a team no one will want to meet during playoffs.
Nongshim and Hanwha life wrap us up here with Hanwha actually on a two match winning streak, though those wins were over Fredit and DRX. Nongshim continues to be the top seed here, despite a loss to Liiv on Thursday. We get Nongshim third or fourth for pricing at some positions which is a big steal for a 10-4 team with a 23-14 games record. Nongshim has only been swept once this season, and that was back against Fredit Brion in week three of the split. HLE is the splits most dissapointing team, as they went from a top three seed playoff team last split to missing the playoffs this split. Willer has been starting in the jungle which has produced some wins but those wins have come against teams that are pretty lowly ranked. If desperately searching for savings, I don’t hate a tournament shot at HLE if multi-entering. Chovy and Deft remain the cogs that make this whole thing turn, as they sit top-15 for CS/M, Gold/M, and KDA. That being said, Peanut has been one of the best junglers this season and should have a big advantage over Willer here. Deokdam sits fifth in the LCK for KDA. This is a slate that has a lot of ways to build it, but to see the teams I will have the most exposure to check out the cheat sheet below. As a friendly reminder, I will still have small exposure to teams not on the cheat sheet, the cheat sheet just highlights my highest owned stacks.
$ Tier CPTN TOP JNG MID ADC SUP TEAM High Elk (11.7k / 115.875) (15k / 115.875) Breathe (6.8k / 67.54) (8k / 67.54) beishang (7.2k / 77.42) (9.4k / 77.42) ShowMaker (7.6k / 76.38) (10.2k / 76.38) Elk (7.8k / 77.25) (10k / 77.25) Missing (5.8k / 56.37) (7.2k / 56.37) DWG Kia (5.8k / 54.68) ( / 54.68) ShowMaker (11.4k / 114.570) (15.3k / 114.570) Khan (6.6k / 63.84) (8.2k / 63.84) Canyon (7k / 71.79) (8.9k / 71.79) Ghost (7.6k / 73.59) (9.3k / 73.59) Kellin (5.6k / 54.04) (7.3k / 54.04) Nongshim RedForce (5.6k / 46.95) (7.8k / 46.95) deokdam (11.1k / 118.965) (15.15k / 118.965) Team WE (5.4k / 44.02) (7.7k / 44.02) Medium beishang (10.8k / 116.130) (14.1k / 116.130) Rich (6.2k / 66.40) (8.1k / 66.40) Peanut (6.8k / 73.89) (9k / 73.89) Shanks (7k / 69.06) (9.1k / 69.06) deokdam (7.4k / 79.31) (10.1k / 79.31) BeryL (5.4k / 61.30) (7.4k / 61.30) OMG (4.8k / 37.96) (7.4k / 37.96) Shanks (10.5k / 103.590) (13.65k / 103.590) Gori (6.8k / 65.80) (8.3k / 65.80) Able (10.5k / 87.795) (14.7k / 87.795) Peanut (10.2k / 110.835) (13.5k / 110.835) Low Creme (9.9k / 89.190) (13.8k / 89.190) New (6k / 53.14) (7.7k / 53.14) AKi (6.2k / 53.57) (8.4k / 53.57) Creme (6.6k / 59.46) (9.2k / 59.46) Able (7k / 58.53) (9.8k / 58.53) cold (5.2k / 51.83) (7k / 51.83)