DraftKings Tennis DFS Core Plays & Cheat Sheet – July 23, 2021 (7/23/21)
Casper Ruud: $10,300 (vs. Paire)
Benoit Paire was a core play for us on Wednesday and cruised to a victory in which his opponent ended up retiring in late in the match. Paire has been way better recently, as highlighted in yesterday’s article, but he has also gotten the benefit of a softer draw to get him to this point. Enter Casper Ruud, arguably one of the best clay-court players in the world who holds a 28-9 record on the year. Ruud has also already captured two titles on the year, both on clay, in Geneva and Bastad. Bastad was the tournament before his time here in Gstaad, so Ruud is now on a five-match winning streak, all of the wins coming in straight sets. Ruud is playing near-flawless tennis, with just three double faults over his last five matches as well. Ruud and Paire have met three times in their careers, all on clay, with Ruud winning all three match-ups and Paire claiming only one set victory. Ruud holds a near 300 point Elo advantage on clay and carries the slates highest odds to win at -625. The form of Ruud is just too good right now and despite Paire’s better recent results, every edge points to Ruud in this matchup.
Elena Ruse: $7,900 (vs. Bronzetti)
Elena Ruse kind of came out of nowhere, winning every match she has played recently, en route to her first clay title just ten days ago at Hamburg – a tournament in which she ran through qualifiers in straight sets, and then defeated names like Teichmann, Danielle Collins, Yastremska, and Petkovic in the finals. This now marks 10 wins straight for Ruse and she matches up with Lucia Bronzetti who just entered the top 200 in the world. This is a matchup of two young talents on their best court type, but it is hard to pick against someone who has not lost in ten-straight matches and is facing an opponent with nowhere near the resume of victories that Ruse has recently amassed. Ruse had to get to where she is in this tournament through qualifiers, though she has not dropped a set yet here in Palermo. To add to that, Jil Teichmann withdrew, so Ruse is coming into this match a little fresher with a days break. Bronzetti is playing strong tennis as well right now, but Ruse gets a great price for us under $8,000 and has a strong Elo advantage on clay over her opponent. Ruse is a -175 favorite here, which is a higher favorite than Lajovic and Gasquet, despite those two being priced at $8,900 and $9,200. While this play won’t hit for us every single time, this is amazing value.
$ Tier P High Casper Ruud (10.3k / 70.34) Danielle Collins (9.8k / 69.88) Dusan Lajovic (9.2k / 51.12) Medium Albert Ramos-Vinolas (8.5k / 53.07) Elena-Gabriela Ruse (7.9k / 54.95) Jaqueline Adina Cristian (7.7k / 40.97) Low Carlos Alcaraz (7.2k / 42.95) Damir Dzumhur (6.9k / 32.82) Astra Sharma (5.3k / 27.32)