Fight Study (6/12/21)
The Main Event of UFC 263 will feature a middleweight title fight between the division’s 3rd ranked contender, Marvin Vettori, and the current champ, Israel Adesanya, in a rematch of a 2018 fight in which Adesanya won by split decision. The champ will be the betting favorite by a good margin and he carries the bigger salaries on Saturday as well. Adesanya is priced at $9,300 on DraftKings and $23 on Fanduel. Vettori, meanwhile, is priced much less at $6,900 and $16 respectively. This title fight is set for five rounds of fight time, but it is a -150 favorite to conclude before ever reaching the judges’ scorecards.
Vettori is a truly dominate middleweight on a five fight win streak. His last lost came at the hands of Adesanya and he will look to redeem that loss on Saturday. He is 17-4-1 with 2 wins by KO/TKO, 9 wins by submission and 6 wins by decision. In his last two fights he defeated top ranked contenders Jack Hermansson and Kevin Holland. He has a great submission game and he is almost guaranteed to have the edge on any middleweight not named Adesanya. These two fighters stand atop this division and this rematch is a fitting matchup to determine the middleweight champion going forth.
Adesanya is coming off of the first loss of his career. After winning his first 20 fights, he stepped up to challenge the light heavyweight champion, Jan Blachowicz. He failed at his bid to become champ/champ, but he remains the most dominant fighter at 185 lb. He is one of just two fighters on Saturday with an average greater than 90 FPPF (DraftKings scoring). Since entering the UFC, Adesanya has been held to less than 95 FP just twice as a middleweight. One of those fights was a unanimous decision victory over Yoel Romero. The other – a split decision win over Vettori in 2018.
Vettori’s toughness in that first fight was impressive. He gives up 4 inches in height and a whopping 6 inches in reach to Adesanya. This remains the biggest difference in this fight. Adesanya’s speed and length are far too much for mortal fighters. Only a super hero level performance is capable of defeating him in his natural weight class. The only fighter who has a chance at making this happen is Marvin Vettori. This fight has the promise of being a truly great one. Watch for the champ to utilize his edge over this 5 round fight. The first time around, they fought a three rounder, and Adesanya will look to wear down Vettori as the fight progresses. Vettori, however, is coming off of back to back 5 round fights and should be capable of standing up to the pressure.
Despite being the best middleweight on the planet not named Adesanya, Vettori still faces a nearly insurmountable challenge here. Adesanya’s speed and length are too much to overcome in my opinion. Vettori will be forced to take damage trying to get within range, and this will take it’s toll in the later rounds. I like Adesanya to get the decision win here and I anticipate he will score well in the process. His salary asks a lot of him in DFS contests, however, and he should be used with some discretion. Still, his potential remains high and he should be used in both GPP contests and cash lineups as well. Vettori is worth limited exposure in GPP contests, but he is likely to disappoint, especially on Fanduel where his salary is much higher relative to the field.
For more Fight Study, be sure to keep your eye on FantasyCruncher.com leading up to UFC 263 on June 12.
UFC 262: FIGHT #1, Vettori vs Adesanya
For Fight Study on UFC 263: FIGHT #2, Moreno vs Figueiredo, click HERE.