MLB DFS: Breaking down the top daily fantasy baseball pitchers on FanDuel & DraftKings for June 9, 2021
Diving into today’s MLB DFS slate to uncover your best pitching plays.
If you’ve been reading this column lately, you’ll know that we’re a big proponent of sticking to the core principles that came out of a deep analysis of 2020 data. Don’t be afraid to pay up for pitching (both sites), and spending around $15,000 to $18,000 is often the optimal range in that department (DK).
There are 12 games on the main slate there today, but I see the pitching landscape as very straightforward to navigate.
Let’s start at the top
Gerrit Cole and Lance Lynn check in as a dynamic 1-2 punch in terms of salary. It shouldn’t surprise that Cole gets the significant edge here in terms of a recommendation for a pay-up option over Lynn, particularly when the salary between the two isn’t very different.
Cole sports the slate’s best K/9 on the year (12.4), the best SIERA (2.36) and a dynamic 15%/36% whiff/chase combo. The Twins are not an easy opponent to take on with a very strong lineup – but I’m not intimidated. Cole should dust off his recent struggles vs TB and put together a 7 IP, 7+ K kind of line here. I much prefer him to Lynn who has a lower K ceiling and faces a very talented TOR lineup who have one of the lower K% in the split, too.
A lefty that I’m loving on DraftKings
The name Austin Gomber is one that is likely to divide audiences tonight.
He’s $9,500 on FanDuel tonight which takes him out of the running as I’d much rather spend a few more bucks for Cole, but on DraftKings at $6,000 he’s basically a slam-dunk SP2.
The focal point of the package for Colorado that made them pull the trigger on the Nolan Arenado deal over the winter has really impressed in 2021. With a 3.98 SIERA, 9.4 K/9, 45% ground ball rate and solid whiff/chase arsenal, he’s been better than the below-average SP that many of us expected him to be. And when you get him against a team who struggles vs LHP like the Marlins do (.295 wOBA; 28% K%), you have to give him the love he deserves on DraftKings. For the price, he’s the best SP value on DK today by a country mile.
Another lefty that needs to be on your FanDuel radar
In terms of a value on FanDuel that isn’t as much of one on DraftKings? Enter Shane McClanahan for the Rays. He’s a mere $6,600 on FD and over $8,000 on DK – so pretty much the inverse of Gomber but not as drastic of a $3,500 difference.
McClanahan has quietly put together very impressive underlying stats in his 30.2 MLB innings this year. He holds a 11.2 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 3.23 SIERA and elite 18%/37% whiff/chase combo. With a mere 3.5 opponent run total for this game here and a 62% win% – Vegas likes him a lot as well. He does face a WAS lineup that has a .335 wOBA split vs LHP this year, but the lineup doesn’t entirely intimidate me as I feel the active bats have over-achieved in some respects.
As long as he can tame Trea Turner and Juan Soto, he should have a pretty smooth-sailing opportunity to go through a lineup that should feature the likes of Kyle Schwarber (poor vs LHP), Josh Harrison, Yan Gomes, Jordy Mercer and Victor Robles. I could easily see his final line looking something like 5 IP, 1-2 ER and 6-7 Ks. That would be a heck of a FanDuel value here at nearly half the cost of Gerrit Cole.
There are some arguments to be made for names like Adam Wainwright, Zach Eflin and maybe even Tony Gonsolin today – but I’m not going to try to convince you to force exposure into your player pools. I feel far stronger about Cole, McClanahan (FD) and Gomber (DK) to keep things focused for you this evening.
That will do it for our version of the Pitching Primer today. Best of luck in your contests!