MLB DFS: Breaking down the top daily fantasy baseball hitters and team stacks on FanDuel & DraftKings for June 8, 2021
Digging into today’s MLB DFS slate to highlight your best bats to stack.
In this article, we will cover two to three teams that we think are the most stackable for MLB contests. If you are newer to DFS or MLB, or just want a general refresher on the impact of stacking in MLB, check out our research done this off-season where we analyzed over 2,000,000 lineups to determine how many times a team of four or five hitters stacked from the same team won contests. In brief, 80.3% of winning lineups across 71 Main Slate tournaments (from 2020) had a stack of at least four players. 71.9% of that 80.3% had a stack of five players. It is pretty clear that stacking is the main strategy to focus on when it comes to MLB, therefore we will be approaching our hitters content from a stacking perspective.
New York Mets (@ Orioles)
The Mets were not a team we liked to stack a couple of weeks ago as they were struggling to hit the ball with a lot of their key hitters on the IL. While some of their hitters are still on the shelf for the most part the Mets lineup is intact. Since the Mets became healthy their hitting has also predictably picked up and over the past two weeks, they have been one of the best hitting teams in the majors. During that time frame, the Mets rank fourth in team OPS, fifth in team ISO, and fourth in team wOBA. The Mets have been lead by James McCann and Dominic Smith during these two weeks. In those two weeks, both players have OPS over 1.100 with ISOs over .300. McCann has really been the hot hitter as he also has four home runs and 11 RBIs during this time frame. While those two guys’ numbers jump out the most to me they are not the only hot hitters on the Mets as Jonathan Villar and the Mets two stud players who have had really slow starts to the season Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso have also picked up their game as of late. Those five guys would make up the core of my Mets’ stack tonight but don’t forget about a guy like Billy McKinney who has a .900 OPS and .333 ISO during this time frame.
Now, the Mets’ hot hitting is not the only reason they are in this article today as the match-up also sets them apart from other hot-hitting teams on this slate. The Mets face off against one of their former Ace pitchers Matt Harvey who has not been an ace for a long time and is in my eyes one of the worst pitchers in baseball. Coming into this season, Harvey had had two straight seasons in which he had an ERA over seven with an HR/9 rate above 1.90 and a WHIP over 1.5. While Harvey has pitched this season it has been by a slim margin. In his 12 starts this year, Harvey has an ERA of 6.62, an HR/9 rate of 1.39, and a WHIP of 1.61. Harvey has a K rate under 20%, is allowing an average exit velocity of 90.0 miles per hour, and a hard-hit rate 38.8% of the time. Harvey also has already faced the Mets once this season and in that game, the Mets scored seven runs off of Harvey in just 4.1 innings of action.
Minnesota Twins (vs Yankees)
The Twins are not a stack for the faint of heart as they have a very low projected run total of just 3.7 and face Gerrit Cole who is one of the best pitchers in baseball. With that being said I really like the Twins as a high risk/high reward stack tonight for a couple of reasons. The first of those reasons is the way the Twins have hit right-handed pitching so far this year. Coming into tonight’s game the Twins have the seventh-highest team OPS, the sixth-highest team ISO, and sixth-highest team wOBA against righties. Miguel Sano and Nelson Curz if he is in the lineup have been the best hitters on the Twins against righties at least in the power department with both having ISO’s over .220 against them this season. Alex Kirilloff doesn’t have the numbers this season but is also another hitter I really like on the Twins against righties and Kirilloff has been hitting the ball a lot better as of late.
The second reason I like the Twins as a potential GPP winning stack tonight is actually the match-up with Cole. MLB has stated that they are going to start to crack down on pitchers using illegal substances and Cole’s name was brought up a lot as someone who it would really affect. While I am not going to say Cole is using the substances or not or if it affects his pitching or not Cole did not look like the same pitcher in his last start as he has in his prior starts. In that game against the Rays, Cole allowed five runs in just five innings of action. Cole’s walk rate was up and his ground ball rate was down which normally spells disaster for pitchers. Now, I know that is only one start for Cole but we can also look at some of the other pitchers whose names have been brought up as pitchers who use these substances such as Trevor Bauer, and see that there might be a little something to this. Bauer struggled in his last start and saw a drastic drop in his spin rate.