DFS Analysis for Rozenstruik vs Sakai from The UFC Apex on Fanduel (6/5/21)
The UFC is back in Las Vegas for MMA action at their Apex facility. Here are two of my favorite underdog plays based on their value in DFS contests on Fanduel on Saturday.
FRANCISCO TRINALDO (FD $8) – Despite fighting at age 42, Trinaldo is currently on a 3 fight win streak and won both of his fights in 2020. He has a significant challenge before him in Muslim Salikhov, but should be up to it having won 12 of his last 15 fights. During that span, only Kevin Lee was able to finish Trinaldo. This will be his first fight in the UFC’s welterweight division after fighting at lightweight for many years. This may slow him down, but is very likely to increase his power on Saturday. Trinaldo does have 9 KO/TKO wins in his career and presents a threat on the ground as well with 5 career submission finishes.
Caveman’s advice: Trinaldo is a long shot but one with potential. Fighters north of 40 have a tendency to fall off precipitously, but with a 3 fight win streak coming into Saturday’s fight Trinaldo hasn’t showed signs of decline. He is fighting a very good opponent in Salikhov, but at this price he is going to be difficult to ignore. Trinaldo has only been finished once over his last 17 fights and should score over three rounds win or lose. For this reason, he is a good cash play due to his solid floor and dirt cheap price. I will also give him a small number of lineups in GPP contests.
(At the time of this writing, Francisco Trinaldo is +198 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 43.93 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
CLAUDIO PUELLES (FD $10) – Puelles got off on the wrong foot in the UFC losing by TKO to Martin Bravo in his octagon debut. He went on to win his next two fights, however, and his UFC record stands at 2-1. COVID kept him from fighting in 2020, but at just 25-years-old Puelles is in great shape for his fight against Jordan Leavitt on Saturday. Leavitt is 8-0 overall, but has just one win at the UFC level. Leavitt is a submission specialist but with 5 submission wins to his credit Puelles is not afraid to grapple and has never been submitted in his 11 fight career. On his feet, Puelles will have a 2 inch height advantage as well as a 1 inch reach advantage on Saturday.
Caveman’s advice: Puelles is underrated in this matchup due largely to his long layoff. He has been training stateside with Sanford MMA and has been vocal about his time there. He has had the opportunity of training with the likes of Derek Brunson and Gilbert Burns and believes his game has improved significantly. I believe he will be coming into this fight as prepared as ever. He is a considerable underdog in this one, but I wouldn’t count him out on Saturday. He has more UFC level experience and will be fully ready for this fight. At his low salary, I will give him good exposure in GPP contests on Fanduel.
(At the time of this writing, Claudio Puelles is +169 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 44.96 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!