MMA on DraftKings – UFC Fight Night 189: Rozenstruik vs Sakai (June 5, 2021)

DFS Analysis for Rozenstruik vs Sakai from Las Vegas on DraftKings (6/5/21)


The UFC makes its way back to Las Vegas and the The Apex facility for MMA action on Saturday. Here are two of my favorite plays based on their value in DFS contests on DraftKings.

MANON FIOROT (DK $8,500) – Since losing by split decision in her professional debut, Fiorot has gone on to win her next 6 fights including 5 of those by KO/TKO. She has finished her last 4 opponents including a second round TKO of Victoria Leonardo in her UFC debut in January of this year. She will face Tabatha Ricci who took the fight on short notice after Maryna Moroz withdrew earlier this week. Ricci is going to be making her UFC debut after starting her career a perfect 5-0. It is safe to assume Ricci has never faced a striker of Fiorot’s caliber and this is a terrible situation in which to make her introduction to the octagon. That’s why Fiorot is one of just two fighters on Saturday who are favorites to get a win inside the distance.

Caveman’s advice: Fiorot’s salary is based on her original opponent and this makes her a top value for someone with her odds. She is the biggest favorite of the evening to get a finish and a conclusion bonus figures to be in her future. Meanwhile, Ricci will be the biggest dog of Saturday’s event by a wide margin. Fiorot eclipsed the century mark in her debut earlier this year scoring 101.5 fantasy points in her win over Leonardo. Give her a lot of love on all formats given her high scoring potential at a moderate price.

(At the time of this writing, Manon Fiorot is -159 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 64.15 on Fantasy Cruncher.)

ROMAN DOLIDZE (DK$8,400) – Dolidze dropped his last fight by decision to Trevin Giles in March of this year. This has resulted in his stock being down, and he finds himself priced near the middle of the pack for DFS contests on DraftKings. Prior to the Giles fight, Dolidze had gone 2-0 in the UFC with an average of 90.0 FPPF. He is 8-1 overall with 4 wins by KO/TKO, 3 wins by submission and 1 win by decision. Dolidze has 7 finishes in 9 career fights and has finished his opponent inside the first round in 5 of those fights. He will face Laureano Staropoli who is coming off of consecutive losses to Muslim Salikhov and Tim Means.

Caveman’s advice: Dolidze is priced to go here and his upside is very good in this one. Staropoli is struggling and should continue to struggle against Dolidze who is dangerous on his feet as well as on the ground. Dolidze is +250 to win this one inside the distance, but I make him much better than that. Dolidze is a great cash play here and his upside makes him worth decent exposure in multi-entry contests as well. I see him getting a finish in this fight and will be sure to give him good play on Saturday.

That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!

About Rob

Since getting out of the casino business, Rob has been playing DFS regularly with a focus on MMA and the NFL. He now lives in Denver, CO.

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