DraftKings & FanDuel NASCAR DFS – Save Mart 350 – June 6, 2021
Martin Truex Jr. – DK: $10,900 | FD: 14,000 – Starting 19th
While the Xfinity Series races Mid-Ohio, the Cup Series actually travels to Sonoma for the Save Mart 350. Sonoma is a 2.52-mile road course that will feature 90 total laps. When it comes to overall dominators at this track, we don’t have to look much further than Martin Truex. Over the last four races here, Truex has two wins, a fifth, and a 37th in which he had engine troubles. Despite the engine issues, Truex still led 25 laps in the race. But in 2018 and 2019, this was a track dominated by Truex with checkered flags in both and 59 laps led in 2019, and 62 in 2018. These resulted in some of the highest-rated races of Truex’s career. The last three races for Truex haven’t been that great, but looking at the season as a whole, Truex still sits sixth in points and has had three fantasy performances on the year that have cracked 100. There is not live qualifying this week and with the recent lower finishes, Truex actually will start this race 19th. This does a few things for me, one, it limits the potential laps led, but with just 90, laps led isn’t going to be an end all be all stat this week. It will come into obvious play, as someone is likely to lead 30+ here, but I more mean laps led should only affect one position. With the differential that can be grained here, I still like Truex’s chances to fight to the front here. Even with the 19th starting position, Truex still carries the second-best odds of the week to win this race, only behind Chase Elliot.
Chase Briscoe – DK: $6,900 | FD: $7,200 – Starting 25th
There is some risk here with Briscoe as this will be his first career start at Sonoma, but he does have a pretty successful track record at road courses throughout his time in the Xfinity Series – finishing in the top-ten in 75% of them. We also saw Briscoe run well at COTA two weeks ago in which he started 27th and finished 6th. While Briscoe has never ran a race at Sonoma, he is running the ARCA race on Saturday night which should act as a little bit of a pseudo practice session. Briscoe in a recent interview also said: “Everybody I’ve talked to says it’s extremely slick and worn out and I love slick and worn-out racetracks. Sonoma is one I’ve been really wanting to get to for a long time, so I’m excited to finally go there this year.” So it sounds like the track setup is one he is already comfortable with on the surface. Briscoe is starting 25th and is the 25th priced driver this weekend on DraftKings. Despite that price point, Briscoe carries the 15th best odds to win this race. While winning isn’t really in the cards, Briscoe carries a cheap price for us and has top-ten upside.
Update: Briscoe won Saturday nights ARCA race at Sonoma, giving us a little more confidence in this pick.
$ Tier D High Martin Truex (10.9k / 68.08) (14k / 68.08) Chase Elliott (10.5k / 47.76) (14.5k / 47.76) Kyle Larson (9.7k / 44.51) (12.5k / 44.51) Kurt Busch (9.1k / 56.56) (8.5k / 56.56) Medium Kevin Harvick (8.9k / 45.05) (10.5k / 45.05) Christopher Bell (8.4k / 40.38) (9k / 40.38) Tyler Reddick (8k / 32.46) (8.3k / 32.46) Cole Custer (7.5k / 26.57) (6.7k / 26.57) Low Chris Buescher (7.2k / 23.18) (7.3k / 23.18) Daniel Suarez (6.4k / 20.40) (6.5k / 20.40) Ryan Newman (6.3k / 19.47) (5k / 19.47)