DraftKings & FanDuel NASCAR DFS – EchoPark Texas Grand Prix – May 23, 2021
Chase Elliot – DK: $10,500 | FD: 14,500 – Starting 8th
When it comes to a driver being synonymous with a specific track type, Chase Elliot and road courses go hand in hand. This week, we travel to the Circuit of the Americas in Austin Texas for the first-ever Nascar event at said track. So while we don’t have current track information to back us up here, we still have plenty of road course data. Circuit of the Americas (or COTA) is a 3.42-mile track that usually caters to F1 events. This is also a rare event this season with live practicing and qualifying, so the reason this is being published a bit late is I had to wait for qualifying to run this morning. Elliot specifically here has five top-two finishes in his last six races – I guess that is a weird way of saying Elliot won four straight races on road courses (Watkins, Charlotte Roval, Daytona, Charlotte round 2) and then took second at the Daytona Road Course last February. Elliot has led at least three laps in all of his last seven races and has led 27 or more in five of them. When it comes to road courses, which aren’t massive 400 lap races that we see, the laps led isn’t necessarily a statistic we need to prioritize, though it goes without saying if someone was to dominate the race, it would make them 100% optimal. Really, no matter when Elliot starts here, he is likely my top play. Elliot turned in the fifth fastest speed in his practice session, only behind Byron, Logano, Larson, and Kyle Busch.
Uodate: I expect Truex to be massive chalk today starting 17fh.
Ross Chastain – DK: $6,000 | FD: $5,500 – Starting 20th
I really struggled finding value this week as I think the value is going to lie more in place differential than it is laps led, therefore finding someone who started further back and can get us that climb is what I am looking for today. It also goes without saying that someone starting further back, in a week with qualifying, means their qualifying times also weren’t that good – so we search for a happy medium. I keep landing back on Ross Chastain as his price is just so low on each site and despite is less than ideal career numbers at road courses, I think we can throw it all out with the equipment Chastain has been running on the year. With an average finish of 19th in 14 races on the year, we have gotten nothing but consistency here with six straight weeks of Chastain finishing in the 14-17 range. These numbers aren’t groundbreaking, but they are floor establishing, and over his last six races that floor has been 35 fantasy points. At just $6,000, this is a 6x value on price which is almost always going to fall inside the optimal lineup. As mentioned, the past stats on road courses aren’t great, in fact, his best finish is 24th, at a road course, but Ganassi has set him up to succeed this year so while it is a risk to ignore the past red flags, I prefer to focus on this year as a whole instead. As a bonus, Chastain had the seventh-highest practice speed and time.
$ Tier D High Martin Truex (10.6k / 60.49) (14k / 60.49) Chase Elliott (10.5k / 47.59) (14.5k / 47.59) Kyle Busch (9.9k / 44.59) (12.5k / 44.59) Joey Logano (9.5k / 39.16) (11k / 39.16) Medium Austin Cindric (8.7k / 34.60) (8.2k / 34.60) AJ Allmendinger (8.5k / 27.76) (8k / 27.76) Christopher Bell (8.3k / 32.32) (9.5k / 32.32) Erik Jones (7.5k / 40.00) (6k / 40.00) Low Chris Buescher (6.9k / 22.15) (7.7k / 22.15) Chase Briscoe (6.4k / 32.33) (7k / 32.33) Ross Chastain (6k / 27.80) (5.5k / 27.80)