Fight Study (5/22/21)
The Main Event of UFC Fight Night 188 features a bantamweight bout between the division’s 4th ranked contender, Cody Garbrandt, and the 3rd ranked contender, Rob Font, from The UFC Apex in Las Vegas. This fight is narrowly handicapped with Font being the slight favorite. He is going to be the more expensive play in DFS contests on DraftKings, but Garbrandt will cost more on Fanduel. Font is priced at $8,300 on DraftKings and $18 on Fanduel. Garbrandt is available for $7,900 and $20 respectively. This fight is scheduled for five rounds of fight action, but as a -280 favorite to end inside the distance the current betting odds strongly suggest an earlier conclusion.
Garbrandt won the bantamweight belt in a victory over Dominick Cruz back in late 2016. He went on afterwards to lose his next three fights — all by KO/TKO. He was finally able to get back on track in his latest fight where he scored a second round KO of Raphael Assuncao in June of last year. Overall, his record stands at 12-3 with 10 wins by KO/TKO and 2 wins by decision. Outside of his losing streak where he dropped two fights to T.J. Dillashaw and one fight to Pedro Munhoz, Garbrandt has won the remainder of his professional fights with 7 first round wins to his credit.
Font has a career record of 18-4 with 8 wins by KO/TKO, 4 wins by submission and 6 wins by decision. He has won his last 3 fights and 6 out his last 8. Most recently he scored a first round TKO of Marlon Moraes for his 8th first round finish of his career. Font stands equal in height to Garbrandt but will carry a huge 6 inch reach advantage into the octagon with him on Saturday. A win on Saturday will put him on a direct path to a title fight in the near future. At 84.2 FPPF, Font has the 4th highest average of all fighters of this Fight Night.
This fight promises to be electric and will showcase two of the most gifted strikers in the UFC’s bantamweight division. Font is the more well-rounded fighter and will have the advantage if this fight goes to the ground, but with just 5 takedown attempts over his last 4 fights this contest doesn’t figure to go in that direction. Still, Font’s massive reach makes him the favorite in this fight and I cannot disagree. Both fighters are fully capable of ending things quickly, however, and this fight should end with a conclusion bonus for the victor. Currently, this fight is a -127 favorite to end before the midpoint of the fight.
In DFS contests, this fight is a virtual dead heat as evidenced by the betting lines and narrow pricing between these two fighters on both DFS platforms. Font is the favorite, he has the better ground game, the longer reach and the higher fantasy average. For these reasons, I’m going to prefer Font on all platforms and in all formats. On DraftKings, both of these fighters are priced closely to the average and they will both have better value on that platform. Still, with a high chance of a KO/TKO in this fight (and 5 rounds of with which to accumulate fantasy points if not), this fight presents a great possibility for scoring on both platforms. In GPP contests, this fight should get heavy exposure. For my money, I’m favoring Font, but I will definitely be giving lineups to Garbrandt as well in multi-entry contests.