DFS Analysis for Font vs Garbrandt from Las Vegas on DraftKings (5/22/21)
The UFC makes its way back to Las Vegas and the The Apex facility for MMA action on Saturday. Here are two of my favorite plays based on their value in DFS contests on DraftKings.
DAVID DVORAK (DK $8,800) – With less than a day’s notice, Juancamilo Ronderos takes the place of Raulian Paiva as Dvorak’s opponent on Saturday. Ronderos is undefeated at 4-0 but will be entering the octagon in just his fifth professional fight to date. With a professional record of 19-3, Dvorak is vastly more experienced and is riding a 15 fight win streak dating back to 2012. Over the course of his career, Dvorak has 8 wins by KO/TKO, 7 wins by submission and 4 wins by decision. In 15 career finishes, 9 of those have come in the first round.
Caveman’s advice: Ronderos is coming in with almost no notice and his lack of preparedness was evident when he failed to make weight on Friday. Dvorak has a huge experience advantage and has already defeated his first two UFC opponents. His current win streak is 11 fights longer than Ronderos’ entire career. Dvorak is the second biggest favorite of this entire event and DraftKings set his salary based on his first scheduled opponent. The only issue with Dvorak is his limited scoring so far in the UFC where he is averaging just 70.3 FPPF. He never fought as such a heavy favorite before, however, and his scoring potential is much higher here. I like Dvorak for good exposure in GPP contests and a lock in cash lineups.
(At the time of this writing, David Dvorak is -481 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 82.48 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
CLAUDIO SILVA (DK $8,200) – Silva brings his elite jiu-jitsu to the octagon against Court McGee on Saturday. McGee has lost 3 straight and 5 of his last 6 fights coming into this matchup. Meanwhile, Silva lost a decision to James Krause in his last fight. He had won 14 straight going into that fight including wins over his first 5 UFC opponents. The oddsmakers have made McGee the slight favorite after having opened the line with Silva as the favorite. It appears the betting public is unaware that McGee has won just twice over the past 5 years.
Caveman’s advice: McGee has been on a decline for years and has come up short in 3 straight decisions. He has not finished an opponent since 2010. Silva, on the other hand, has won 14 of his last 15 with 2 wins by KO/TKO, 9 wins by submission and 3 wins by decision over that span. Silva is the much hotter fighter with the bigger scoring potential in this fight, and yet his salary is just a hair over average on Saturday’s slate. I like his chances at a submission here and think he’ll win this fight easily. I like him for moderate exposure in GPP contests and as one of the top cash plays of this Fight Night.
(At the time of this writing, Claudio Silva is -107 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 57.40 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!