Fight Study (5/15/21)
The Main Event of UFC 262 features the lightweight division’s 4th ranked contender, Michael Chandler, and the 3rd ranked contender, Charles Oliveira, in a fight that will likely put the winner on the path toward a title fight. Both fighters are looking to maintain their current win streaks, and with eight wins leading into Saturday, Oliveira is the favorite in this one. He is priced higher in DFS contests with salaries of $8,700 on DraftKings and $21 on Fanduel. Chandler is available for $7,500 and $18 respectively. This fight has been set for five rounds as the Main Event, but the oddsmakers don’t expect this one to reach a decision and have made it a -485 favorite to end before reaching the judges’ scorecards.
Chandler made a very impressive debut in the UFC with a first round TKO of Dan Hooker in January of this year. He is a longtime veteran of the fight game with a career record of 22-5 with the bulk of his experience coming as a Bellator fighter. He is now in the UFC and has quickly risen to a top ranked contender after just one fight with his new promotion. He is a powerful striker who is coming into Saturday’s fight with 3 straight first round wins by KO/TKO. He is 22-5 overall with 10 wins by KO/TKO, 7 wins by submission and 5 wins by decision. He has never been submitted in his career, but he will face a better grappler than he has faced before in Oliveira.
Oliveira is 30-8 as a professional with 8 wins by KO/TKO, 19 wins by submission and 3 wins by decision. He has had his share of losses, but has won 8 straight leading up to this fight with 5 submissions and 3 KO/TKO wins over that span. Only Tony Ferguson was able to go the distance with him during his current win streak. Oliveira must avoid Chandler’s power and his 2 inch height advantage and 2.5 inch reach advantage should help him accomplish this. His terrifying submission game will also serve to help him find a victory on Saturday.
This figures to be a very interesting fight featuring opposing styles. Chandler will do his best to stand and strike while Oliveira will do his best to take this fight to the ground where he shines. Oliveira is a very small dog to get a finish in this one at +105 to finish Chandler inside the distance. Chandler is not far behind this number at +165 to finish Oliveira. Clearly the odds point to a shortened fight between these two lightweights. Oliveira must keep Chandler at distance or he will suffer the same fate as Hooker. If he can take Chandler to the ground, however, he will be a clear favorite in grappling.
This is a real toss up situation and I suggest playing both sides of this fight with heavy exposure on both sides of this one. Chandler’s below average salary on DraftKings gives him a good deal of value on that platform. I believe both fighters are worthy of exposure in GPP contests as the winner of this fight is almost sure to put up a big score. Forced to choose, I will take Chandler’s lower salary on DraftKings, but on Fanduel Oliveira will get more play for my money. One thing is certain, this fight is going to be a good one.
For more Fight Study, be sure to keep your eye on FantasyCruncher.com leading up to UFC 262 on May 15.
UFC 262: FIGHT #1, Chandler vs Oliveira
For Fight Study on UFC 262: FIGHT #2, Dariush vs Ferguson, click HERE.