Fight Study (5/15/21)
Fireworks are likely when Edson Barboza enters into the octagon with Shane Burgos in a featherweight contest in Houston for UFC 262. Burgos has been appointed the favorite by the oddsmakers and will carry the bigger price tag on both DFS platforms on Saturday. He can be rostered for $8,400 on DraftKings and $20 on Fanduel. Barboza is priced a bit less at $7,800 and $12 respectively. This fight has been scheduled for three rounds, but it is a favorite to finish before going the full time as a -155 favorite to conclude before reaching the judges’ scorecards.
Barboza has struggled of late, an issue which likely factored in his decision to make the move from lightweight to featherweight last year. He has a record of 21-9 with 12 wins by KO/TKO, 1 win by submission and 8 wins by decision. He is 2-5 over his last 7 fights, and is 1-1 since joining the featherweight division. He did win his last fight, however, earning a unanimous decision win over Makwan Amirkhani in October of last year. At age 35, it is possible that time is to blame for his recent decline, but it is also largely due to the quality of competition he has faced. His last 5 losses were to Dan Ige, Paul Felder, Justin Gaethje, Kevin Lee and Khabib Nurmagomedov. No one can accuse him of refusing to fight against the best.
Burgos is one of the toughest fighters in the division. He has a record of 13-2 with 5 wins by KO/TKO, 5 wins by submission and 3 wins by decision. Only Calvin Kattar has ever finished him. He is 6-2 in the UFC with 3 finishes inside the octagon to his credit. His last fight came in June of last year where he lost a decision to Josh Emmett. He is a very good boxer with solid power, but he figures to be the slower fighter in the octagon on Saturday. He will have to take care against Barboza who will fire head kicks with tremendous speed. If he is able to counter those kicks with power shots down the middle he could get his fourth finish inside the octagon.
Burgos will be wise to go to the body in this fight. His power can suck the power out of Barboza if he can land with consistency. Barboza is a quick fighter and going for head shots may prove a difficult task. By attacking the body, he will have a larger target and can wear down his opponent. Barboza must be moving constantly, keeping his feet moving and moving his head in order to present a moving target for Burgos. If possible, Burgos will be looking to counter strike his faster opponent. Burgos does have a pretty solid chin, and he should be able to absorb punishment to set up his strikes.
Barboza is a dangerous fighter who has the potential to land devastating kicks against opponents with limited movement. As long as Burgos doesn’t present an easy target and he counterstrikes with regularity, I think he will handle Barboza without too much difficulty. Both men are fully capable of dropping opponents, however, and this fight could go in a few different directions. I would definitely factor both fighters into my GPP strategy with a moderate exposure for each in multi-entry contests. Ultimately, I prefer Burgos in this one and will give him the greater exposure of the two.
For more Fight Study, be sure to keep your eye on FantasyCruncher.com leading up to UFC 262 on May 15.
UFC 262: FIGHT #4, Barboza vs Burgos
For Fight Study on UFC 262: FIGHT #3, Araujo vs Chookagian, click HERE.
For Fight Study on UFC 262: FIGHT #5, Bontorin vs Schnell, click HERE.