DraftKings & FanDuel NASCAR DFS – Drydene 400 – May 16, 2021
Kevin Harvick – DK: $9,800 | FD: 11,500 – Starting 5th
We were on Harvick last week and I am right back to him this week at the Monster-Mile of Dover. Over Harvick’s last six races at Dover, he has not finished worse than 6th, including three 4th place finishes, and two checkered flags. What makes Harvick appealing here is his history of absolutely dominating this race. On three separate occasions over his last six races, Harvick has led over 200 laps – with two of those being over 220. Harvick had a slower start to the season but has put it together over his last three races with an average finish of 4th. In 14 races on the year, Harvick has finished in the top ten, ten times. Truex, Hamlin, and Larson are all top dollar options that I like this week, but when it comes to raw laps led, no one is out-classing Harvick at Dover.
Cole Custer – DK: $7,700 | FD: $6,500 – Starting 30th
I think Custer ends up being pretty chalky this weekend, but the data on him lines him up well to be one of the top value plays on the slate. At the Cup level, Custer has two races at Dover, both coming in the double-header of August last year. In these two starts, Custer finished 10th and 11th. At the Xfinity level though, Custer has five top-ten finishes in six races, with his one finish outside the top-ten a 13th. Custer’s last three races in 2018-2019 were Custer’s best though, with a 1st, 4th, and 2nd place finish. In those three races, Custer led 21, 155, and 38 laps. While the Xfinity Series is obviously widely different in talent, it is still a reassuring stat that shows a drivers confidence level at a track. With an average finish of 10.5 at the Cup level and a 30th place start this week, Custer offers us a ton of place differential upside here.
$ Tier D High Kyle Larson (11.5k / 45.58) (13.5k / 45.58) Denny Hamlin (11.1k / 46.02) (13k / 46.02) Brad Keselowski (10.3k / 55.58) (11k / 55.58) Kevin Harvick (9.8k / 48.46) (11.5k / 48.46) Medium Alex Bowman (9.2k / 42.94) (10k / 42.94) Kurt Busch (8.7k / 60.15) (8.5k / 60.15) Aric Almirola (8.2k / 56.61) (7.5k / 56.61) Cole Custer (7.7k / 45.63) (6.5k / 45.63) Low Ross Chastain (6.5k / 26.55) (5k / 26.55) Corey Lajoie (5.7k / 23.45) (3k / 23.45) Anthony Alfredo (5.5k / 23.45) (4k / 23.45)