DraftKings Xfinity NASCAR DFS – Drydene 200 – May 15, 2021
Justin Allgaier – DK: $10,400 – Starting 2nd
We head to the Monster Mile of Dover this week for the 1-mile oval. Recently, this race has been dominated pretty heavily by one name in the Xfinity circuit and that is Justin Allgaier. Allgaier now holds seven straight top-seven finishes, with only one finish outside the top 12 since 2013. Outside of a seventh-place finish on day two of the double-header last summer, Allgaier had a run of 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, and 2nd. During that stretch, Allgaier led 19 or more laps in five starts, with clearing 104 laps led twice. Allgaier has also had at least 18 of the fastest laps in his last five Dover starts. The downside here is the starting position of second, which limits our differential obviously, but this is clearly a track that Allgaier has dominated in the past and when it comes to making a dominator call, he has the data to back it up. Over his last seven top-ten finishes, he has started from an average position of around 8th. We will need some laps led and fastest laps here, but everything sets us up for that to happen.
Gray Gaulding – DK: $6,700 – Starting 40th
If you were hoping to come here for some chalk value and a guy with an absolute great track record at Dover and a cheap price with high differential upside then – you should probably just stop reading. Digging far and wide, there isn’t much redeemable data here – truthfully, Dover is a bit of a wildcard track, and with lower-grade cars in the back, our safety net has a lot of holes in it. This shouldn’t come as a big surprise – I speak often about how the Xfinity Series for value is almost like a pick a name out of a hat. That doesn’t mean there won’t be weeks we can make an educated pull, but sometimes you can research 20 drivers priced at the 20 lowest price points and find 20 drivers with a career average finish at a track of 28+ with a handful of did not finish. There is a lot of risk with Gaulding here, but he still offers us the most upside starting dead last in this race. Looking at race logs, Gaulding has combined -1 fantasy points over his last two races. In these two races, Gaulding has netted two DNF, and has a history of over-aggressiveness. This obviously is a big worry as your lineups can flip at the drop of a dime. Gaulding has raced Dover three times, with an average start of 28th and average finish of 24th. With the 40th place start here, we are just hoping for Gaulding to not wreck out here and finish somewhere in the 20-30 range. This isn’t as extreme of an ask as it seems, as Gaulding has still finished 67% of his races on the year.
$ Tier D High Ty Gibbs (11.5k / 61.44) Austin Cindric (11k / 60.24) Justin Allgaier (10.4k / 47.64) John Hunter Nemechek (10.1k / 62.44) Medium Harrison Burton (9.1k / 42.04) Jeb Burton (8.3k / 38.03) J.J. Yeley (8.1k / 29.82) Riley Herbst (7.9k / 38.03) Landon Cassill (7.7k / 37.62) Low Gray Gaulding (6.8k / 27.89) Colby Howard (6.2k / 17.62) Bayley Currey (6.1k / 14.01) Jade Buford (4.9k / 16.81)