MLB DFS: The FC Insights team shares their top home-run candidates for the day’s slate
Every day this season, our team will share who we believe has the best chance to leave the yard. We’re calling it the “Dinger of the Day”. From one-off plays to core parts of daily stacks, we hope this fun article will help you build winning lineups along the way.
James: Trent Grisham – “With a lot of star power on the mound tonight, it feels easy to pick on Mitch Keller as he is one of the lower-tier pitchers going. On the year, Keller has a 8.20 ERA, 1.98 WHIP, and some metrics that paint him near the bottom of the league. Keller ranks in the bottom 15-25% of the MLB in Avg Exit Velo, HardHit%, BB%, and Whiff%. The fastball isn’t the problem here for Keller, it has been everything else, mostly his slider, that has been getting knocked around. While hitters, in general, are hitting Keller at a .300 clip or higher, it has been righties who are slugging him at .611, though lefties aren’t far behind at .548. But when it comes to which Padre is slugging breaking balls the highest, Grisham plays here at .636 slugging and .455 average against breaking balls – and though three of his four home runs are on the fastball, that is just covering the primary pitch for us here. I think Grisham matches up extremely well against Mitch Keller and while it would be the easy way to say Machado or Tatis homers here, I think Grisham is the guy I will put my money behind.
Zach: Kyle Seager – “Jorge Lopez is just an awful pitcher that struggles to keep the ball in the park. Since the start of the 2019 season, Lopez has allowed 40 home runs in his 184.1 innings of work. That works out to be an HR/9 rate of 2.0. For those of you who love the Statcast numbers, they are also not good during this time frame. Lopez has an average exit velocity allowed over 90 miles per hour, a barrel rate over 10%, and a hard-hit rate over 40% during this same time frame. At least one of the Mariners players is going to go deep tonight the question is which one. For me I am going to go with their number three-hitter in Seager as his Statcast numbers are excellent. Seager has an average exit velocity of 89.9, a launched angle of 19.7%, and a 14.4% barrel rate.”
Jared: Teoscar Hernandez – “While I hate the pitcher’s park in Oakland, I really like that Cole Irvin is a softer-tossing lefty who relies heavily on his fastball (60%) of the time and faces a TOR club who stacks the lineup with RHBs. Teoscar has really been swinging the bat nicely since coming back from the IL, and traditionally crushes LHP. He’s been having great at bats lately, has hits in 5 straight including a long ball, and has a career .252 ISO vs LHP (.333 ISO in the split in 2020). I’m loving the TOR offense here, and banking on Teoscar to connect for a long, high drive tonight.”