MLB DFS: Breaking down the top daily fantasy baseball hitters and team stacks on FanDuel & DraftKings for May 4, 2021
Digging into today’s MLB DFS slate to highlight your best bats to stack.
In this article, we will cover two to three teams that we think are the most stackable for MLB contests. If you are newer to DFS or MLB, or just want a general refresher on the impact of stacking in MLB, check out our research done this off-season where we analyzed over 2,000,000 lineups to determine how many times a team of four or five hitters stacked from the same team won contests. In brief, 80.3% of winning lineups across 71 Main Slate tournaments (from 2020) had a stack of at least four players. 71.9% of that 80.3% had a stack of five players. It is pretty clear that stacking is the main strategy to focus on when it comes to MLB, therefore we will be approaching our hitters content from a stacking perspective.
San Diego Padres (vs Pirates)
The Padres did not work out for us yesterday as they only put up two runs but that was just baseball being baseball. The Padres despite last night’s performance have a great lineup and one that has a lot of power especially against right-handed pitching which they face tonight. Since the start of the 2019 season, all eight of their projected hitters have an ISO over .170 against right-handed pitching. Three of those guys have ISO’s over .200 during that time frame and those three players Fernando Tatis Jr., Jake Cronenworth, and Trent Grisham would be who I start my lineups with tonight as not just their power numbers jump out at me. Tatis has an OPS of .916 and a wOBA of .380 against righties during this time period and has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball with six home runs in his last nine games. Cronenworth has a wOBA of .372 during this time frame against righties and has reached base safely in eight of his past 11 games. Grisham didn’t get a hit last night but had at least two hits in each of his three previous games for the Padres and has at least one hit in nine of his past 11 games. Another Padre hitter I really like tonight to add to this trio is Eric Hosmer. Hosmer has an OPS of .808 and a wOBA of .340 against right-handed pitching during this time frame and is a consistent source of points with an on-base percentage of .372 this season.
While those numbers jump out at me they also should be boosted tonight as the right-handed pitcher that the Padres are facing is an awful one in Mitch Keller. Keller comes into tonight’s start with some really awful numbers on the season. Keller has an ERA of 8.20, an HR/9 rate of 1.45, and a WHIP of 1.98. Keller struggles with his command with a walk rate of 14.1% and struggles in limiting hard contact with a 33.3% hard-contact rate allowed. Hitters are slashing .308/.402/.577 with a .414 wOBA against Keller this season. What I really love about the match-up with Keller tonight for the Padres is the fact that one of Keller’s awful starts this season was also against the Padres. In that start, Keller allowed seven runs on nine hits and three walks in just 3.1 innings of action.
Seattle Mariners (vs Orioles)
I am hoping with this being such a large slate that the Mariners will fly under the radar a bit as they have GPP winning potential on this slate. The reason why I say this is the fact that they get to take on Jorge Lopez. Lopez has had some decent starts this season but do not let those starts fool you Lopez is not a good pitcher. In his five starts this season, Lopez checks in with an ERA of 7.48, an HR/9 rate of 2.49, and a WHIP of 1.43. Lopez is allowing hitters to slug .465 with a wOBA of .352. If those last two numbers hold they will be the fourth time in his past five seasons that Lopez has allowed hitters to slug at least .465 with a wOBA over .345. Now, Lopez has done a great job in limiting hard contact this season with a 26.2% hard-hit rate allowed but I am not buying into that number as Lopez has had a hard-hit rate over 35% the past four seasons.
The thing I love the most about Lopez is that he struggles equally against both right-handed and left-handed-hitting. That is great news for a team like the Mariners who skews more as a right-handed heavy team with really only one left-handed hitter in the top six of the order. That hitter Kyle Seager is who I would start my lineups with as he has an ISO over .190 against right-handed pitching for each of the past six seasons including a .253 mark this season. I also really love the other Kyle on the Mariners Kyle Lewis. Lewis has an ISO of .212 against righties since returning to the Mariners lineup after missing the start of the season and has hits in five straight games. Mitch Haniger is another player to add to your core of Seattle hitters tonight. Haniger has gone deep in three of his last four games and for the season has an ISO of .295 and a wOBA of .364.