MLB DFS: Breaking down the top daily fantasy baseball hitters and team stacks on FanDuel & DraftKings for May 3, 2021
Digging into today’s MLB DFS slate to highlight your best bats to stack.
In this article, we will cover two to three teams that we think are the most stackable for MLB contests. If you are newer to DFS or MLB, or just want a general refresher on the impact of stacking in MLB, check out our research done this off-season where we analyzed over 2,000,000 lineups to determine how many times a team of four or five hitters stacked from the same team won contests. In brief, 80.3% of winning lineups across 71 Main Slate tournaments (from 2020) had a stack of at least four players. 71.9% of that 80.3% had a stack of five players. It is pretty clear that stacking is the main strategy to focus on when it comes to MLB, therefore we will be approaching our hitters content from a stacking perspective.
San Diego Padres (vs Pirates)
Before jumping into the Padres tonight I wanted to talk briefly about their rivals the Dodgers. If the Dodgers/Cubs game plays tonight the Dodgers would be my no doubt top stack. It does look like a big “IF” when it comes to the Dodgers playing due to the weather in the Windy City tonight and that is why I cannot write them up fully in this article. With the Dodgers risky the Padres are my next favorite team to stack even with a game at Coors as they take on Tyler Anderson. Anderson’s numbers of the season are actually not that bad as he checks in with an ERA of 3.38 and has not allowed more than three runs in a start this season but some of his underlying numbers show he is not good. Anderson has a WHIP of 1.24, is allowing a hard-hit rate of 30.3%, and an average exit velocity of 87.6. Anderson’s career numbers are also not good even factoring in that he pitched most of his career at Coors Field.
While the Padres right-handed hitters especially guys like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado are my favorite hitters in their lineup don’t be afraid to target some of their lefties as Anderson has been a bit of a reverse splits pitcher. Since the start of the 2019 season, Anderson has allowed lefties to slug .475 with a .350 wOBA. Anderson has a WHIP of 1.50 and an HR/9 rate of 1.3 with a K rate under 20% against them in that time frame. Trent Grisham and Eric Hosmer would be at the top of my lefty list on the Padres. While the sample size of course is not huge as the season is only a little over a month old both Grisham and Hosmer have had success against lefties this season. Grisham has an OPS of 1.071 with an ISO of .200 and a wOBA of .462 against left-handed pitching this season while Hosmer has an ISO of .200 and a wOBA of .383.
Cleveland Indians (@ Royals)
The Indians are a bit of an off-the-wall selection tonight as they have a projected run total under 4.5 and don’t have the best lineup in the world but I really like them tonight. I like them tonight due to the fact that they take on a pitcher in Daniel Lynch who is making his first career start in the majors. Now I know that Lynch is a highly regarded prospect ranking 24th in MLB Pipeline rankings but I am not going to buy into him until he shows me he can pitch in the majors. Lynch has not pitched about High-A in his career and pitchers normally struggle when they make such a huge leap in competition. Lynch for all his hype also doesn’t miss a lot of bats which I will admit is a bit weird based on his skill set. Now we don’t know how long Lynch is going to pitch tonight but that only makes me like the Indians even better. Let’s assume that Lynch is really worth all the hype and shuts down the Indians for say four or five innings. That is going to still leave the Indians time to do damage against the Royals bullpen which just isn’t very good. The Royals pen has a combined ERA of 4.84 which is the sixth-highest in the majors, an HR/9 rate of 1.17 which ranks in the upper half of the majors, and a WHIP of 1.42 which is the seventh-highest in the majors.
When targeting the Indians tonight there are two guys that are must in my lineups. Those two guys are Jose Ramirez and Jordan Luplow. Ramirez is the best hitter on the Indians as we know and has crushed left-handed pitching since the start of last season. In that time frame, Ramirez is slugging .710, has an OPS of 1.141, an ISO of .376, and a wOBA of .469. Luplow is also a lefty killer and during the same time frame, he has an ISO of .232 and a wOBA of .360 against them. Outside of those two guys I also like Roberto Perez assuming Perez is in the lineup. Perez is a rare catcher that hits towards the top of their team’s lineup and he also has pop against lefties with an ISO of .220 since the start of last season.