MLB DFS: The FC Insights team shares their top home-run candidates for the day’s slate
Every day this season, our team will share who we believe has the best chance to leave the yard. We’re calling it the “Dinger of the Day”. From one-off plays to core parts of daily stacks, we hope this fun article will help you build winning lineups along the way.
James: Nelson Cruz – “I am picking on Brad Keller pretty hard here, but his metrics so far this season are pretty bad. Keller is a guy who is throwing a variation of his fastball, whether four-seam or sinker, around 71% of the total time. This is important because these two pitches combined have a PutAway% of just 11.6%. These two pitches are also being slugged around .500 and have coughed up 22 hits in 58 at-bats. Right-handed hitters are hitting Keller at a .424 batting average and .606 slugging percentage. Nelson Cruz on the year is slugging .698 against RHP and has six long balls against them. Cruz ranks in the top of 4% of the MLB in Avg Exit Velocity, Max Exit Velocity (top 1%), and HardHit% (top 2%). Nelson Cruz simply put is still an elite bat who is posting the best Barrel% and best Exit Velocity of his entire career. He is also slugging fastballs at a .618 clip. The recipe here just adds up for Cruz to go deep today and there is no chance I am fading it.”
Zach: Alex Kiriloff – “It is okay if you don’t know who Kiriloff is as he has only played a total of ten games in the majors. All you need to know about him is he has power for days and that power has manifested itself in spades in this Royals series. Kiriloff has feasted on Royals pitching for his first three career home runs. He is going to add to that number this afternoon as Brad Keller is not a good pitcher as my colleague James broke down so well in his home run pick of the day.”
Jared: J.D. Martinez – “Over the last few years, Folty has allowed RHBs to slug .480 against him while giving up 17 homer runs in just 27 games. He’s turned into a heavy fly ball, hard contact pitcher the last few years who now doesn’t miss many bats whatsoever (8% whiff% and 28% chase% this year). His 10 barrels allowed in 2021 are #2 on the board for the main slate as well, and a mere 25% CSW% show you that opponents have no problem getting the pitch(es) they want against him. Martinez is as talented of a hitter as there is in baseball, and in this plus-plus spot he’s a great candidate to go yard here.”