MLB DFS: The FC Insights team shares their top home-run candidates for the day’s slate
Every day this season, our team will share who we believe has the best chance to leave the yard. We’re calling it the “Dinger of the Day”. From one-off plays to core parts of daily stacks, we hope this fun article will help you build winning lineups along the way.
James: Kyle Lewis – Griffin Canning is a polarizing pitcher as he has strong swing and miss stuff, yet the pitches he relies on the get the swings and misses also are slugged at a high rate and give up the home runs. For example, Canning’s slider produces 43% swing and misses – yet it is being slugged at a .586 average and has been taken deep three times on the young season. Canning is also throwing this pitch as his primary pitch around 40% of the time with his four-seam fastball being thrown around 36% of the time and being slugged at .750 right now. Right-handed hitters have also done the most damage here, slugging Canning at .763 and hitting five of the six home runs he has given up on the year. So for right-handed power, Kyle Lewis gives us the best shot here. Though Lewis only has 26 plate appearances on the year, he has the highest Barrel% on the Mariners and the second-best launch angle. As an added bonus, Lewis has taken Canning deep once in his three career at-bats.
Zach: Marcell Ozuna – “I am going to ride the hot hand in Ozuna as he has hits in five straight games for the Braves and has gone deep in two of his past three games. In those games, Ozuna has an average exit velocity of 94.0, a hard-hit rate of 52.4%, and a .348 ISO. Ozuna is not only hitting the ball well but I also love the fact that this is going to be a bullpen game for the Blue Jays which means Ozuna should get some at-bats against the likes of Trent Thornton and Tommy Milone. Thornton has a career HR/9 rate of 1.36 while Milone’s sits at 1.52. The duo allowed three home runs the last time they pitched four days ago.”
Jared: Rafael Devers – “Most barrels allowed amongst SPs on the main slate? Check. Crazy high 20+ degree launch rate this year? Check. The highest hard hit rate amongst starters today? Check. That’s Jordan Lyles for us here folks, as we dive into the Statcast numbers to make the case for a strong bat against him. Devers is my guy tonight. Not only for how crappy Lyles is as a pitcher, but also for how good the Red Sox lefty is at crushing baseballs. He destroys RHP to the tune of a career 126 wRC+, a .255 ISO and .540 OPS. Not to mention leading the Sox in barrels and hard hit rate in the last couple of weeks, too. The fly ball oriented pitcher is in tough against a talented Red Sox lineup today, and Devers stands in as good a spot as any to take him deep.”