DFS Analysis for Reyes vs Prochazka from Las Vegas on DraftKings (5/1/21)
The UFC makes its way back to Las Vegas and the The Apex facility for MMA action on Saturday. Here are two of my favorite plays based on their value in DFS contests on DraftKings.
MERAB DVALISHVILI (DK $9,000) – Dvalishvili’s price tag is a bit limiting, but upon further review I like his potential to score very well in this contest. He is currently on a 5 fight win streak where he is averaging 111.7 FPPF including a 173.5 FP effort against Gustavo Lopez where he tallied 13 takedowns. He will face Cody Stamann who has just 2 wins over his last 5 fights averaging 48.2 FPPF over that span. Stamann is a tough competitor, but outside of his 3-0 start in the UFC (during which 2 of his wins came by split decision) he has failed to impress. Dvalishvili, on the other hand, is on a tear and has figured out how to dominate UFC fighters with his high level wrestling and lightning fast takedowns.
Caveman’s advice: During his current win streak, Dvalishvili has totaled 37 takedowns (an average of 7.4 takedowns per fight) and no one outside of John Dodson has come close to being able to defend takedowns against him. Stamann doesn’t have the ultra-fast reflexes that Dodson has and he won’t fare nearly as well. Meanwhile, Dvalishvili has figured out his formula for victory and that method includes a lot of scoring via takedowns. Even in losses, Dvalishvili has averaged 74.5 FPPF giving him an incredibly high floor. He will make a fantastic cash play and his ability to score makes him a top play in GPP contests as well.
(At the time of this writing, Merab Dvalishvili is -234 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 68.71 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
KAI KAMAKA (DK $8,400) – Kamaka’s real asset on Saturday will be his price tag. He is priced just above average despite the fact that he has the second highest significant strike rate of all fighters in this event. He is landing at 32.9 significant strikes per round with an astounding 60% accuracy rate. He is just 1-1 so far in the UFC, but after winning Fight of the Night honors in his debut he did get finished in his second trip to the octagon. This brings his stock down, however, in his second fight he still looked good in a back and forth effort against Jonathan Pearce. In that fight, he controlled the first round and nearly secured a guillotine submission in the second round. He faces TJ Brown on Saturday who is also 1-1 in the UFC.
Caveman’s advice: Kamaka has a lot of scoring potential at a price just above average. He faces Brown who has a disappointing 40% takedown defense rate. This plays right into Kamaka’s hands as in his first fight he scored 115.0 FP largely in part to going 5 for 5 in takedown attempts. Kamaka comes in as a moderate favorite in this one, but I think his odds are unnecessarily deflated due to his loss to Pearce last November. I like him as a solid cash play and a GPP play worth good exposure in multi-entry contests as well.
(At the time of this writing, Kai Kamaka is -167 with the oddsmakers and has a projected score of 64.72 on Fantasy Cruncher.)
That’s all for this week. Good luck with your lineups!