DraftKings & FanDuel NASCAR DFS – Buschy McBusch Race 400 – May 2, 2021
Kyle Larson – DK: $11,300 | FD: 13,500 – Starting 32nd
A few things are super noticeable right away here and that is the high price but the far back starting position. Nascar travels to the 1.5-mile track at Kansas this week for the Bushy McBusch Race 400. If you take a peek at Larson’s most recent two races it isn’t too great with the 18th place in Richmond and a 40th at Talladega, though this was a product of a wreck. But the kicker here for me is Larson’s current run on intermediate tracks (1.5-mile) as he is the only driver to finish top five at all three races so far this year. Larson took fourth in Miami, first in Vegas, and second at Atlanta. Over Larson’s last four races at Kansas, he has two top-five finishes, with his lowest finish being 14th in October of 2019. In that race, he still managed to lead 60 laps however. So what we have is a driver who is racing on his best track type, with historical numbers that certainly aren’t bad, but we have to account for a whole new team here. And then to top it off he starts 32nd which has massive place differential upside. As a finishing note, Larson has led 377 laps on intermediate tracks this year, which is roughly 44% of all laps run on 1.5-mile tracks.
Erik Jones – DK: $7,800 | FD: $7,000 – Starting 27th
Jones is not a driver I target frequently, mostly due to his inconsistent nature. This can be seen by just looking at his logs this season, as he really has alternated strong finishes with the bad ones, in the end, he currently sits 27th in points which paints more of the picture of this season. Jones however has the upside and speed in his car to surprise us on any given week and he was running great at Talladega last week until wrecking on the final lap. This is also another instance of a driver cheaper on FanDuel than on DraftKings so while I like him on both, there is a small savings bump to FanDuel lineups here. Outside of Jones’ October 2020 race here at Kansas, it had been five straight top-ten finishes for Jones, including three of those five being top-five finishes. Since 2018, Jones has an average finish of 7.6 here with an average starting position of 13th. If you are looking for a little bit more savings, then Austin Cindric probably holds the best GPP label for me at $6,700 on DraftKings. Cindric is starting 38th and offers a ton of differential points and his Nascar career has been pretty solid to start 2021. Cindric has started 38 or later in his three races at the pro level and has an average finish of 21st. The historical data from the Xfinity Series at Kansas doesn’t paint this as his best track, therefore he takes a secondary value spot for me this week – though he still deserves exposure.
$ Tier D High Alex Bowman (10.2k / 55.93) (9.2k / 55.93) Kurt Busch (9.3k / 60.41) (8.7k / 60.41) Denny Hamlin (10.8k / 71.53) (14k / 71.53) Chase Elliott (10.4k / 59.16) (11.5k / 59.16) Joey Logano (11.1k / 75.60) (12k / 75.60) Kyle Larson (11.3k / 82.53) (13.5k / 82.53) Medium Erik Jones (7.8k / 45.73) (7k / 45.73) Aric Almirola (8.4k / 40.14) (7.5k / 40.14) Cole Custer (7.1k / 27.95) (7.2k / 27.95) Low Corey Lajoie (5.5k / 17.04) (4k / 17.04) Austin Cindric (6.7k / 43.52) (6.2k / 43.52)