The NBA Rundown – FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Picks – April 30, 2021 (4/30/21)
In this article, we will be breaking down some of our favorite plays on the slate at their positions. Please note that players on DraftKings have multi-position eligibility and may not always match their position on FanDuel. Remember to always keep your eye on the news as the day progresses as NBA news changes the slate frequently.
Kyrie Irving – Kyrie did not play Thursday against the Pacers due to right groin soreness, so there is a world where that injury lingers into today’s matchup with the Blazers. However, I am basing this off the assumption that he is good to go. This being a back-to-back and Irving out on Thursday and Durant playing also tells me this is likely going to be a game that Durant sits out, so the need for Irving grows a little bit more. Over Irving’s last five games he is averaging 23.6/6.8/8.6 and 49.9 fantasy points. We also get a dream matchup here as the Nets face the Blazers – a team who is allowing the second-most fantasy points to the point guard position on the year as well as 48% from the field to their opponents.
Patrick Mills – There really isn’t any well-established value right now for a cheap point guard, but Mills should see plenty of more time on the court with Derrick White now being out for the season. It isn’t a large boost, but with no White on the court, Mills usage jumps by 4%, and his fantasy points per minute jumps from .065 to .080. This is definitely more of a GPP dart, but at $3,200 we aren’t going to need much out of Mills to hit 6x value.
Devin Booker – Booker hasn’t been the greatest over his last six games, with down shooting numbers from the field and three-point range, but his minutes have remained the same at 35.5 a game. If anything, the down shooting has lowered his price, down $500 now from just two games ago. The matchup on paper against the Jazz looks worse than it is here, with Donovan Mitchell still out and Mike Conley treading a questionable line (though he likely plays). Among all else, Booker’s price drop offers us value here and the minutes have been consistent. Booker will need to straighten out his three-point shooting, as he is just 2-of-10 in his last two games. If a few of these drop, we are looking at massive boosts over his last two games which gets us looking at Booker in a different way. Just two made three-points on DraftKings is an extra seven fantasy points. Sometimes the line between a good and bad fantasy day can come down to something as simple as that.
Lonnie Walker – With the news that Derrick White is likely out for the season, Walker should have a path to more consistent guard minutes going forward. Walker played 29 minutes on Wednesday and while Devin Vassell grabbed the start, Walker played more minutes and had more usage off the bench. When Walker plays at least 29 minutes he has scored in double figures in 14 of those 18 games. The price here is dirt cheap at $3,700 on DraftKings.
Jaylen Brown – Brown has been pulling heavy-duty over his last two games with several Celtics injuries or absences to thank. Over his last two, Brown has played an averaged of 37.5 minutes and is shooting over 50% from the floor on 49 total attempted field goals. This is due in part to the injuries to Kemba Walker. Walker will miss again today as he carries a doubtful tag, and while Marcus Smart will return from his one-game suspension, it shouldn’t change the usage or volume from Brown at all. Brown has scored at least 20 points now in nine straight games and has top 30 four times in that stretch. Over his last four games, Brown is above his season average for points, rebounds, minutes and steals – while his assist numbers are down slightly, this is the tradeoff for more attempted shots.
Gary Harris – I am cheating a little bit here as Harris has Small Forward eligibility on DraftKings, though I believe he is just a Shooting Guard on FanDuel. Harris has played 32 or more minutes over his last three games and has also attempted double-digits shots in all three of them. Two of those games were duds from the floor, as he shot just 5-of-26 in that stretch and just 2-of-11 from three. Harris was able to put it together on Wednesday, hitting 9-of-16 from 19 points and filled out his peripherals way above his season averages with six rebounds and seven assists. Michael Carter Williams is out for today’s game while Terrence Ross remains doubtful – as long as both of them are out, we can expect Harris to fall into the same minutes range with the upside to have the ball in his hand a little bit more than his two-assist per game average. DraftKings didn’t over-correct his price after a 39.5 fantasy point night and he still remains just $4,400.
Jayson Tatum – The Power Forward position isn’t offering us too much tonight so Tatum falls as the safest top-tier option. I say I don’t like the PF position tonight as I think Davis and/or Durant both sit tonight with injury management (just a guess) and Giannis is a bit over-priced as he is still being eased back into full strength and full usage. There is a pretty steep drop off from Durant ($8,900) to our next option of Harrison Barnes at $7,400 (who himself is banged up). So really Tatum is the only top dollar PF that is in play for me at the time of writing this. The Spurs have done a good job against the PF position on the year, but the current form of Tatum and Jaylen Brown running the offense makes me throw out the seasonal rankings on paper. Tatum over his last five games is averaging 36.4 minutes per game and is averaging 48.6 fantasy points per game which is three above his season average. Why this is impressive is during this stretch, Tatum is actually only shooting 38% which is down from his season average of 45.5%. Poor shooting is a blessing and a curse when looking at numbers on paper, as when players are having down games yet scoring near 40 fantasy points the ceiling is actually quite higher on a normal shooting night.
Jeff Green – Over Green’s last six games he is playing well above his season averages, averaging 33 minutes, 14.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 3.2 assists – this averages out to 30.3 fantasy points, 10 points higher than his season average of 20.3. Green has also started these last six games and is seeing an average usage rate of around 17%. With no Kevin Durant tonight, this is a pretty easy value as we are looking at double-digit shot volume and another easy path to his recent 33-37 minute mark. Outside of Kyrie, the Nets are short-handed tonight so look for Green and Joe Harris to become the secondary scorers.
Mo Bamba – This may be a little bit of an off-the-wall play, but with Chuma Okeke already ruled out and Wendell Carter’s minutes being watched a little bit, Bamba actually has a path to a lot of minutes in this one. With Chuma Okeke off the court and Bamba on it, Mo Bamba carries a 25% usage rate and is a 1.29 fantasy point per minute player. I see a world where Mo Wagner also sees elevated minutes here, but I think Bamba gives us the best upside at his price which what could also be pretty low ownership.