The NBA Rundown – FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Picks – April 29, 2021 (4/29/21)
In this article, we will be breaking down some of our favorite plays on the slate at their positions. Please note that players on DraftKings have multi-position eligibility and may not always match their position on FanDuel. Remember to always keep your eye on the news as the day progresses as NBA news changes the slate frequently.
Steph Curry – Curry draws a dream matchup against a Timberwolves team who is allowing 117.5 points per game and 48% from the field and 39% from three. Over the last ten days, Curry is shooting 49% from the field and 48% from three and is averaging over 50 fantasy points per. Curry’s shot attempts have been a little more reserved over the last few games with the Warriors getting healthy, but this is a game that Curry’s ceiling is elevated in.
Facundo Campazzo – There is nothing flashy or exciting here, but Campazzo has played over 30 minutes in five of his last six games. Over the last ten days (six games) Campazzo is averaging 32.2 minutes and 26.8 fantasy points. which is 11 points higher than his season average. It goes without saying this is due to him now starting with the injuries to Murray and Morris. As it stands at the time of writing this, this is the cheapest starting point guard on the slate right now and while the ceiling isn’t that high, his price is low enough to help open up the roster for other positions. Campazzo did have a monster on Wednesday night, playing 36 minutes and scoring 19 points with six boards and ten assists for 48.5 fantasy points. This could lead to a bit of a chase, but it also shows his ceiling – buyer beware that this shouldn’t be viewed as the normal though.
Lu Dort – I had Fred VanVleet here but he is now ruled out tonight so I am shifting this to Lu Dort. Dort is averaging 35 minutes over his last five game and hasn’t fallen below 31 fantasy points in that stretch. It really comes down to Dort not being afraid to put shots up, as he has had at least 14 attempts in his last five and two of those games were 20 and 31 attempts. With the Thunder getting a little healthier, we can assume more towards the 15 attempt side as the norm, but Dort is getting to the line a lot, in fact, he had 13 free throw attempts last time out against the Celtics. The new and aggressive Dort is really the first option in the Thunder offense right now and he draws a positive matchup against the Pelicans tonight.
Kira Lewis Jr. – This is a weird pick, but one I like a lot for value tonight. Lewis Jr. is just $3,100 on DraftKings, though he has played 17 or more minutes in each of his last four games and two of those games at 22 minutes or more. Over the last four games, Lewis is averaging around 16 fantasy points per game, which isn’t a lot but it is 5x+ return on his salary. The Thunder have given up the fourth-most fantasy points to point guards and the seventh most to shooting guards, so as long as Lewis hits around 20 minutes again, then he has around 20 fantasy point upside. This is a guy who would realistically never make this write-up unless there was a ton of injury news, but on a six-game slate that hasn’t opened up a ton of value yet, we have to create our own. Lewis was the first guard off the bench on Wednesday for the Pelicans.
Khris Middleton – The Bucks have a ton of firepower and six different guys who could all have GPP winning fantasy lines on any given night. With Giannis healthy and in the lineup, the role players around him, IE: Holiday and Middleton take a little bit of a usage hit, but they are still producing nightly. Middleton himself is averaging 38 fantasy points per night and only fell below 31 fantasy points once in his last ten games (that game being a 40 point blowout win against the Sixers in which he only played 20 minutes). While the ceiling is capped here because of Giannis, Middleton (and really all Bucks shooters) draw a great matchup here against a Rockets team allowing the most fantasy points to shooting guards and the sixth most to small forwards. While the Bucks will be massive favorites here, Middleton will be facing a team who is allowing high shooting percentage rates. Because this is a short slate, we need to expand our pool a bit here and while Middleton may not have a 60 point ceiling, he does have a 30 point floor which is just as important.
Kent Bazemore – Bazemore has been out for a week under COVID protocols but is expected back tonight against the Wolves. Bazemore was already grabbing starts for the Warriors, but with Kelly Oubre doubtful for this game Baze is now a lock for the starting five at just a $3,900 price point. In his last game played back on 4/21, Bazemore played 35 minutes against the Wizards, scoring 19 points with nine boards, three assists, two blocks, and *six* steals. In Bazemore’s seven starts before entering protocols, be is averaging 11.4/4.4/2.0 and 1.7 steals per game. This is likely the chalk value of this slate not only because of price but also matchup.
Kevin Durant – We are easing back into action with Durant here, but as his minutes have climbed, his price really has not. Durant played 28 minutes on Sunday and 33 on Tuesday, averaging 49 fantasy points in the two. Durant is still just a $8,500 player on DraftKings, which is around $1,500 less than his expected peak. With no James Harden, Durant is going to be hand-in-hand with Irving at top of the usage boards. A soft matchup with a size-deficiant Pacers team is up next and Durant is just offering too much value to pass up right now. Update: Kyrie Irving is out tonight.
Oshae Brissett – Brissett kind of came out of nowhere but has now posted five straight games over 24 fantasy points and two of those have been between 49-52 fantasy points. Over the last ten days, Brissett is averaging 35 minutes per game and 48% shooting with a 15.6/9.4/1 average. Sabonis is already ruled out for this game, so not much should change for us here and sites haven’t been too aggressive moving this price up.
Isaiah Stewart – Mason Plumlee has already been ruled out for tonight’s matchup against the Mavericks which means Stewart is in line for the start and a hefty minutes increase. Ten days ago, Stewart managed a 50.5 fantasy point performance in a start against the Cavs when Plumlee was rested. It wasn’t as big of a game against the Spurs last Thursday when he also grabbed a start, but he still managed 28 minutes and fell two points short of a double-double. The Mavericks rank in the middle of the NBA for defense against centers, but also are pretty banged up. Stewart might not be the highest ceiling play on this slate, but at his price he produces some of the highest potential value.