The 2021 Valspar Championship : The Primer – PGA DFS Analysis

Featuring in-depth analysis of The 2021 Valspar Championship! Daily fantasy golf analysis for this week’s DFS slate to help you build winning cash game and tournament lineups on DraftKings.

Welcome to The Primer column for The 2021 Valspar Championship! We are here to help you build your DFS lineups for FanDuel, DraftKings or whatever other sites you choose to play on (this article does have a DraftKings bias though).

In case you missed it – you can find my cheat sheet posted for The Valspar Championship!

This week, the field will make a run at Paul Casey – who picked up the win in this event in both 2018 and 2019, clearly showing that he’s a horse for the course.  I won’t even bother covering Casey in this week’s primer, he is a strong option and one that I expect to be popular in terms of ownership levels.

The Best of the best…

  • Viktor Hovland, $10,500

If you are looking to pivot off of Casey, or to include a second high priced option along side him, Hovland is a great option.  While most of his strokes gained on field are off the tee, where he ranks 4th – he’s still above average at SG: APP and ranks 8th on tour in SG: TTG.  He’s an elite ball striker and one of the better players in the field this week.  He was on an outstanding run between December-February, and while he’s hit a bit of a lull of late, I think this is a great spot for him in this week’s event.  I like the upside here for a guy that I think has the potential to fly under the radar with many flocking to Casey, or on the higher end to JT or DJ, making him a very interesting pivot.

The Next Group

  • Russell Henley, $9,000

I’ll probably keep touting him until he stops playing like an elite golfer.  The price point is a little high, but I’m also expecting him to be used by many this week – but I’d be ok with eating the chalk here.  He ranks 4th on tour in SG: APP, and has used that to rank 11th in SG: TTG and 15th in SG: Total.  He’s played like one of the best in the game this year and isn’t quite priced there.  In this week’s field, he offers plenty of upside, even at a $9,000 salary.

  • Max Homa, $8,100

Homa has been one of the better breakout players so far on tour this season, coming into this week’s event ranked 18th in FedEx Cup points.  His game is above average in all the key metrics, highlighted by his 45th place ranking in SG: Total.  I don’t think he is quite enough of a metrics darling to see his ownership levels skyrocket this week, but I love him at this price in this week’s event.  I think he keeps his strong 2020-21 PGA season rolling and has another strong showing here at the Valspar.

  • Doug Ghim, $7,300

Ghim is a great ball striker, ranking 27th on tour in SG: APP and 18th in SG: TTG, making him a great fit for this week’s event.  He comes into this one playing pretty well – and quite honestly, I think he should be priced up around $8,000.  He has made 4 of his last five cuts, and while he has had his woes on Sunday in a couple of events, I think it’s only a matter of time before he strings together some top 25 finishes – and it wouldn’t shock me if that came to fruition this week.  He’s got a great game, and in the relatively weak field event, I think he’s a great value option at his price point.

Don’t Forget About…

  • Sam Horsfield, $7,400

Horsfield is someone that I think will fly under the radar due to his limited PGA tour history.  He comes into this one with four straight strong showings, with top ten finishes in the Gran Canaria, the Kenya Open and the Kenya Savannah Classic, adding to an impressive international resume that also included two wins on the Euro Tour last season.  The price point is affordable for him in this one and I like his chances of being in the mix at this week in a pretty weak field PGA event.  He ranks 86th in OGWR and the former Florida product looks like a good fit for the course this week.  There’s some risk here, making him a bit of a boom/bust pick – but I think he offers as much upside as almost anyone in this price range.


About Brad

Brad hates the term fantasy sports expert, so instead he is someone who specializes in NFL, NHL and MLB DFS notes and analysis. He had a 68.2% win rate in 2015 NFL cash games to go along with a 83.5% win rate for the 2014 season. For NHL he had a 58.7% win rate in the 2015-16 season for cash games and a 66.2% win rate for the 2014-15 season. You can follow him on Twitter @bradsgotmoxy.

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