DraftKings & FanDuel NASCAR DFS – Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500 – April 10, 2021
Brad Keselowski – DK: $11,000 | FD: $13,000 – Starting 10th
If we are looking for a driver who has dominated Martinsville several times in the past then we don’t need to look much further than Brad Keselowski. Keselowski is currently riding a ten race streak of top ten finishes at Martinsville with his last five races all being top-five finishes. Keselowski’s best race here was back in March of 2019 when he led 446 of the 500 laps en route to a victory. In 22 career races here, we have an average finish of 10.8, though that number is heavily swayed by just three finishes of 32nd or worse. On four separate occasions Kes has led over 100 laps – both of his wins here he led 116 or more. When it comes to past success here, Denny Hamlin has 15 top-five finishes in 30 career races with five wins. Hamlin starts this race second so he definitely has dominator potential. I just think Keselowski won’t have a ton of work to battle to the front and can grab the handful of differential as well. Ultimately, Hamlin, Keselowski, and Kyle Busch are the top three candidates to reach their ceiling this week.
Ross Chastain – DK: $6,300 | FD: $3,500 – Starting 27th
First-time appearance for Chastain in this writeup but his dirt-cheap price on FanDuel actually is a bit too low as Chastain has quietly had a pretty decent season. Chastain wrecked out of the Bristol Dirt Race two weeks ago which leaves a -12 blemish on his fantasy record, but aside from that Chastain finished 14th at Atlanta, 19th at Phoenix, and 17th at Miami. Chastain holds an average finish of 21st this year and though only an average of 20.7 fantasy points this number is heavily affected by a -9 and -28 fantasy performance when he wrecked out of races. Going back a calendar year, Chastain showed some success at short tracks though we don’t have a ton of cup data – at the Xfinity level Chastain posted a 2nd place finish at Bristol and a 5th and 3rd at Richmond. Chastain’s last Xfinity race at Martinsville he finished 5th while leading 31 laps. As mentioned, this is not an easy track to pass on, but that doesn’t mean it is impossible. Guys like Michael McDowell at $5,500 but starting 14th offers more downside for us as I don’t expect him to be able to hold that spot. Chastain fits in a nice hole of short track success across levels and a starting position that still offers us upside if he can move towards the front a little bit.
$ Tier D High Kyle Larson (11.7k / 63.35) (11k / 63.35) Brad Keselowski (11k / 55.82) (13k / 55.82) Denny Hamlin (10.4k / 47.41) (12.5k / 47.41) Kyle Busch (9.8k / 55.35) (10.5k / 55.35) Kevin Harvick (9.6k / 51.35) (10k / 51.35) Medium Alex Bowman (9.2k / 49.31) (9.5k / 49.31) Kurt Busch (8.9k / 54.65) (9k / 54.65) Austin Dillon (7.1k / 37.61) (7.3k / 37.61) Cole Custer (7k / 39.80) (6k / 39.80) Low Erik Jones (6.6k / 39.02) (5k / 39.02) Ross Chastain (6.3k / 28.63) (3.5k / 28.63) Michael McDowell (5.5k / 26.75) (3.5k / 26.75)